clothcap (clothcap) wrote,

CCNet: IPCC Model Predictions May Be Wrong

CCNet – 28 April 2011

The Climate Policy Network

New Study: IPCC Model Predictions May Be Wrong

When purported “scientific experts” emulate spiritual prophets they overstep their bounds, and we can no longer trust them. --Larry Bell, Forbes, 26 April 2011

This could mean that current IPCC model predictions for the next century are wrong, and there will be no cooling in the North Atlantic to partially offset the effects of global climate change over North America and Europe. Instead, increasing Agulhas leakage could stabilize the oceanic heat transport carried by the Atlantic overturning circulation. -- Lisa Beal, National Science Foundation, 27 April 2011

Under slowing or full Atlantic MOC shut-down, temperatures on Europe’s western margin would be most affected, together with further rises in relative sea level on European coasts. Although there are no indications of an imminent change in the North Atlantic THC it is recognised that MOC shut-down, should it occur, is likely to have potential socio-economic impacts for Europe and more widely. Hence, it would be valuable to consider these impacts in developing climate policy. --IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

The ocean current that gives western Europe its relatively balmy climate is stuttering, raising fears that it might fail entirely and plunge the continent into a mini ice age. The dramatic finding comes from a study of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, which found a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream. The slow-down, which has long been predicted as a possible consequence of global warming, will give renewed urgency to intergovernmental talks in Montreal, Canada, this week on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. --Fred Pearce, New Scientist, 30 November 2005

 Another important point is that the ozone hole is not even mentioned in the summary for policymakers issued with the last IPCC report. The fact that ozone was an unappreciated effect in terms of climate that may be a major influence is yet another reason why the last IPCC report is flawed, and another example of the fact that should not have been needed to say: the science isn’t settled. --David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 26 April 2011

1) New Study: 'IPCC Model Predictions May Be Wrong' - National Science Foundation, 27 April 2011

2 ) David Whitehouse: Another Thing The IPCC Missed - The Observatory, 26 April 2011

3) Irish Policy Review Calls For End To Green Energy Subsidies - RTÉ News 27 April 2011

4) Climate-Policy Goals Of German Government No Longer Attainable After Anti-Nuclear U-Turn - Finfacts, 26 April 2011

5) Andrew Montford On Green Churnalism - Bishop Hill, 25 April 2011

6) Nick Grealy: Shale Gas's WOW! moment USA version - No Hot Air, 27 April 2011

7) Larry Bell: Climate Change As Religion - Forbes, 26 April 2011

Courtesy of Dr Peiser, GWPF

Casting my mind back I recall that high levels dust blown from the Sahel region of Africa and deposited in the Gulf of Mexico was associated with periods of rapid climate change, shown by a core from the region. This can be by a number of mechanisms. The fine particles in the atmosphere themselves cause less solar radiation to reach the Atlantic, they also increase cloudiness by providing condensation bases. A third mechanism is by raising iron content and so fertilising the Gulf through which the THC flows, the resulting increase in plankton reduces the depth of penetration of solar radiation so decreasing the depth of cool Gulf waters. This in turn decreases the depth (thickness) of the current as it passes through the Gulf and so it is more rapidly dispersed. Another mechanism may be by the influence of the dust on stratospheric water vapour, condensation causing drying. This reduces the availability of free oxygen and hydrogen from photolytic breakdown of the molecules, a possible ozone depletion reducing factor by the decrease in H available to form complex chlorine based molecules and by warming the air by the dust absorbing radiation, ozone volume increases more rapidly in a warming environment due to the raising of the height of the stratopause causing a reduction in the downflow of N ions. Changes in ozone volumes influence trade winds' strength and direction that has a large influence on ocean currents.
Greening of the desert regions due to increasing carbon dioxide levels could be a climate stabilising factor. Perhaps when sanity and honesty make a showing in politics (there's a first time for everything but don't hold your breath) the production of CO2 will be rewarded.
The UN “disappears” yet another inconvenient climate claim, and once again, botches the cover up
It seems there’s a purge on at the UN to remove failed climate claims. Last week it was the 50 million climate refugees that never materialized and was covered up, this week it’s the poor of Africa they’ve “disappeared”.
Horner: Michael Mann may have something to hide
Inferred by U turn by his protective uni due to pressure from alarmist activist groups.
Old but not stale by any means
If Climate “Researchers” Became Doctors… here
Fred Singer’s items posted at American Thinker can be found  here. His latest, The Sustainable Development Hoax is up to his usual standard.
Lubos Motl promotes green religion here. [Even bad press is better than no press...]


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