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24 January 2011 @ 01:59 am
CO2 melts ice? Biofuel, Double GPS provision and Fusion are good investments?  
Clues to End of the Last Ice Age
 [...] The best estimate from other studies of when CO2 began to rise is no earlier than 18,000 years ago. Yet this study shows that the deep sea, which reflects a good picture of oceanic temperature trends, started warming about 19,000 years ago.
“What this means is that a lot of energy went into the ocean long before the rise in atmospheric CO2,” Stott said.
But where did this energy come from? Evidence pointed southward.
Water’s salinity and temperature are properties that can be used to trace its origin – and the warming deep water appeared to come from the Antarctic Ocean, the scientists wrote.
This water then was transported northward over 1,000 years via well-known deep-sea currents, a conclusion supported by carbon-dating evidence.
In addition, the researchers noted that the increases in deep-sea temperature coincided with the retreat of Antarctic sea ice, both occurring 19,000 years ago, before the northern hemisphere’s ice retreat began.
Finally, Stott and colleagues found a correlation between melting Antarctic sea ice and increased springtime solar radiation over Antarctica, suggesting this was the energy source.
As the sun pumped in heat, the warming accelerated because of sea-ice albedo feedbacks, in which retreating ice exposes more of the ocean that can absorb heat from the sun, much like a dark T-shirt on a hot day, and this results in more melting.
In addition, the authors’ model showed how changed ocean conditions may have been responsible for the release of CO2 from the ocean into the atmosphere, which like the albedo feedbacks, also accelerated the warming.
The link between the sun and ice age cycles is not new. The theory of Milankovitch cycles states that periodic changes in Earth’s orbit cause increased summertime solar radiation in the northern hemisphere, which controls ice size.
However, this study suggests that the pace-keeper of ice sheet growth and retreat lies in the southern hemisphere’s spring rather than the northern hemisphere’s summer.
The conclusions underscore the importance of regional climate dynamics, Stott said. “Here is an example of how a regional climate response translated into a global climate change,” he explained.
Stott and colleagues arrived at their results by studying a unique sediment core from the western Pacific composed of fossilized surface-dwelling (planktonic) and bottom-dwelling (benthic) organisms.
These organisms – foraminifera – incorporate different isotopes of oxygen from ocean water into their calcite shells, depending on the temperature, and by measuring the change in these isotopes in shells of different ages, it is possible to reconstruct how the deep and surface ocean temperatures changed through time.
If CO2 caused the warming, one would expect surface temperatures to increase before deep-sea temperatures, since the heat slowly would spread from top to bottom. Instead, carbon-dating showed that the water used by the bottom-dwelling organisms began warming about 1,300 years before the water used by surface-dwelling ones, suggesting that the warming spread bottom-up instead. /full report (USC)

Long debate ended over cause, demise of ice ages — may also help predict future
Researchers have largely put to rest a long debate on the underlying mechanism that has caused periodic ice ages on Earth for the past 2.5 million years – they are ultimately linked to slight shifts in solar radiation caused by predictable changes in Earth’s rotation and axis.
In a publication to be released Friday in the journal Science, researchers from Oregon State University and other institutions conclude that the known wobbles in Earth’s rotation caused global ice levels to reach their peak about 26,000 years ago, stabilize for 7,000 years and then begin melting 19,000 years ago, eventually bringing to an end the last ice age.
The melting was first caused by more solar radiation, not changes in carbon dioxide levels or ocean temperatures, as some scientists have suggested in recent years.
“Solar radiation was the trigger that started the ice melting, that’s now pretty certain,” said Peter Clark, a professor of geosciences at OSU. “There were also changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ocean circulation, but those happened later and amplified a process that had already begun.” /more

Causes for the warming of the Arctic Ocean and polar air and the rapid loss of thin ice from 1999 on
1) The Gakkel and Lomonosov 1,800-kilometre-long ridges cut across the Arctic from Greenland to Siberia. They are the product of plates separating, “spreading” ridges where molten rock rises up from inside the earth creating new crust. The ridge extends around the planet like seams on a tennis ball, visible at Iceland. It is called the mid-ocean ridge volcanic system. The Gakkel ridge is especially active as discovered by a team of scientists led by Robert Sohn of the Woods Hole.
Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes (Canada.com) The Arctic seabed is as explosive geologically as it is politically judging by the “fountains” of gas and molten lava that have been blasting out of underwater volcanoes near the North Pole.“Explosive volatile discharge has clearly been a widespread, and ongoing, process,” according to an international team that sent unmanned probes to the strange fiery world beneath the Arctic ice.They returned with images and data showing that red-hot magma has been rising from deep inside the earth and blown the tops off dozens of submarine volcanoes, four kilometres below the ice. “Jets or fountains of material were probably blasted one, maybe even two, kilometres up into the water,” says geophysicist Robert Sohn of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who led the expedition.
Volcanic eruptions reshape Arctic ocean floor: study (AFP) – Jun 25, 2008  Recent massive volcanoes have risen from the ocean floor deep under the Arctic ice cap, spewing plumes of fragmented magma into the sea, scientists who filmed the aftermath reported Wednesday.
The eruptions — as big as the one that buried Pompei — took place in 1999 along the Gakkel Ridge, an underwater mountain chain snaking 1,800 kilometres (1,100 miles) from the northern tip of Greenland to Siberia
.
[...]The scientist regards the matter differently after her participation in the Oden-Expedition 2007, during which systematic earthquake measurements were taken by Schlindwein’s team in the active volcanic region: “Our endeavours now concentrate on reconstructing and understanding the explosive volcanic episodes from 1999 and 2001 by means of the accompanying earthquakes. We want to know, which geological features led to a gas pressure so high that it even enabled an explosive eruption in these water depths.” Like Robert Reves-Sohn, she presumes that explosive eruptions are far more common in the scarcely explored ultraslow-spreading ridges than presumed so far.
“…unmistakable evidence of explosive eruptions rather than the gradual secretion of lava” and “Both sonar and visual images showed an ocean valley filled with flat-topped volcanos up to two kilometres (1.2 miles) wide and several hundred metres high.”
/many more links here – iceagenow.com/ocean_warming.htm – (Robert Felix’s time is arriving.)
Arctic Ridges
Arctic Ridges (either side of the deep blue). Source

2) Changing currents (Reports from2007)
Arctic Sea ice loss – “it’s the wind” says NASA “Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic,” said Son Nghiem of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and leader of the study. When that sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters.
NASA Sees Arctic Ocean Circulation Do an About-Face A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.
[...] The team of scientists found a 10-millibar decrease in water pressure at the bottom of the ocean at the North Pole between 2002 and 2006, equal to removing the weight of 10 centimeters (four inches) of water from the ocean. The distribution and size of the decrease suggest that Arctic Ocean circulation changed from the counterclockwise pattern it exhibited in the 1990s to the clockwise pattern that was dominant prior to 1990.
Reporting in Geophysical Research Letters, the authors attribute the reversal to a weakened Arctic Oscillation, a major atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern hemisphere. The weakening reduced the salinity of the upper ocean near the North Pole, decreasing its weight and changing its circulation.
“Our study confirms many changes seen in upper Arctic Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by global warming,” said Morison
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3) Warming Oceans fully explained in The Late 20th Century Warming Resulted From a 1970s Climate Shift (Not CO2)
Small excerpt: Climate Shift Observed in Oceanic Oscillations The IPCC states in the AR4: “The 1976–1977 climate shift in the Pacific, associated with a phase change in the PDO from negative to positive, was associated with significant changes in ENSO evolution.“ The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index is calculated from sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures. The following figure shows the monthly PDO index from the 1940s to 2008. [jisao.washington.edu/pdo/] The PDO shifted from a predominantly cool phase to a predominantly warm phase after 1977. (See www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO_AMO.htm for more information on the PDO) /much more
Warm water incursion There are two main ocean water gateways of inflow to the Arctic – the Atlantic via Fram Strait and the Pacific via the Bering Strait. Normally the main inflow and outflow is via the Fram Strait with the Bering Strait being secondary. In recent years increased summer flows via the Bering Strait have had a major impact on Arctic sea ice. (Link)

4) Arctic Oscillation A study published in 2009 (Wang, Zhang, Watanabe, Ikeda, Mizobata, Walsh, Bai and Wu: “Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic summer sea ice extent?”, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 36, 2009 [ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/wang/Related_Papers/Wang_paper63_2009_GRL.pdf]) states: “Since 2002, when summer Arctic sea ice continued to set one record low after another, the AO [Arctic Oscillation] index has become mostly neutral or even negative [Maslanik et al., 2007], suggesting a weak link between the AO and the rapid sea ice retreat in the recent years. Thus, there must be a new explanation for the record low sea ice since 1995. Such an explanation will help understand the internal variability of Arctic climate and sea ice. … Recent record lows of Arctic summer sea ice extent are found to be triggered by the Arctic atmospheric Dipole Anomaly (DA) pattern. This local, second–leading mode of sea–level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the Arctic produced a strong meridional wind anomaly that drove more sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean from the western to the eastern Arctic into the northern Atlantic during the summers of 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2007. In the 2007 summer, the DA also enhanced anomalous oceanic heat flux into the Arctic Ocean via Bering Strait, which accelerated bottom and lateral melting of sea ice and amplified the ice–albedo feedback.”
5) Arctic Ozone Levels The following figure shows the winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) for 1950 – 2008 [http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/climate-ao.shtml]. The positive AO seems to correspond to lower ozone, lagged by one year. The AO started a strong positive phase in 1989 and the ozone decreased starting in 1990 as shown above. /full explanation here and more in “Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic” Oscillation (NAO)

6) Dark Aerosols Black carbon is responsible for 50 percent of the total temperature increases in the Arctic from 1890 to 2007 according to a study published in Nature Geoscience. Since 1890 the temperature in the Arctic has risen 1.9 degrees Celsius, linking black carbon to nearly an entire degree rise in Celsius or almost two degrees Fahrenheit.
Black carbon, a particulate air pollutant, is formed by-way of the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. In places like Asia black carbon is usually produced by burning wood, coal, or cow dung for cooking or heating. In America and Europe, the use of diesel contributes heavily to black carbon. In total the destruction of forests and savannah by burning is the largest contributor of black carbon. /more – Black carbon linked to half of Arctic warming

7) Water Vapour, Ice Crystals and UV Another time maybe.

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The AO went strongly negative in 2009. The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
 

The self deceiving and liars claim CO2 melts ice.
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This post "How it Works: Drive up Food Prices By Demanding Biofuel, Then Blame Global Warming" linked to the following article at Environment News, UN: Biofuel Production 'Criminal Path' to Global Food Crisis
GENEVA, Switzerland, April 28, 2008 (ENS) - The United States and the European Union have taken a "criminal path" by contributing to an explosive rise in global food prices through using food crops to produce biofuels, the United Nations special rapporteur on the right to food said today.
At a press conference in Geneva, Jean Ziegler of Switzerland said that fuel policies pursued by the U.S. and the EU were one of the main causes of the current worldwide food crisis.
Ziegler was speaking before a meeting in Bern, Switzerland between UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the heads of key United Nations agencies.
Ziegler said that last year the United States used a third of its corn crop to create biofuels, while the European Union is planning to have 10 percent of its petrol supplied by biofuels.
The Special Rapporteur has called for a five-year moratorium on the production of biofuels.
Ziegler also said that speculation on international markets is behind 30 percent of the increase in food prices.
He said that companies such as Cargill, which controls a quarter of all cereal production, have enormous power over the market. He added that hedge funds are also making huge profits from raw materials markets, and called for new financial regulations to prevent such speculation.
The Special Rapporteur warned of worsening food riots and a "horrifying" increase in deaths by starvation before reforms could take effect.
Meanwhile, speaking in Rome today, a nutritionist with the UN World Food Programme said that "global price rises mean that food is literally being taken out of the mouths of hungry children whose parents can no longer afford to feed them."
/full story including feeble counter claim here

The post criticises media "reportage" that points the finger at global warming, adds more evidence for biofuel subsidies being an act of pure evil and gives a simple order of skullduggery that brought about biofuel legislation.
1) Gore and other global warming cheerleaders push for biofuels
2) America and EU mandate targets for biofuel use.
3) Quarter of corn production goes to fuel use, prices skyrocket. [People starve]
4) NGO’s issue report blaming global warming and overpopulation.
5) The media repeat this line without investigation or even reading the report properly

(Continues with) And these are the people who believe that they know how to save the world. Who are demanding a total reorientation of everything. How we eat, live, work, travel – everything. They’ve driven up the price of food in a way even the UN calls “criminal” and then they turn around and say its global warming and overpopulation.
But then, that’s how it works.

Excepts from comments:
Obama ploughs $1.8bn into US biofuel industry makeover

Obama signs tax pact; ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel credits restored
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The warmists have become what they fear – a global catastrophe
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Why even the UK Guardian noticed, so it must be serious, but one suspects that their readership kinda glossed over the link between transferring food production to fuel and the food shortages.
guardian.co.uk/science/blog/2007/aug/17/biofuelsmenacerainforests
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IMO they are as guilty of murder as those who refused succour to little Fiona Nantume and the 49 others of the doomed 50 in her orphanage who paid the ultimate cost of unnecessary death via DDT deprivation because of raised liberal eyebrows that decided their ultimate fate.
And this is civilisation and you are civilised libertarians? If you can handle the self-loathing then here’s a link about Fiona and her little dead chums.
icecap.us/images/uploads/Driessen-GreenslieAfricansdie.pdf
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God save us from rabid environmentalists.
The warmists have become what they fear – a global catastrophe
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Full post here (My take on biofuels here)

Galileo, a multi billion euro over-budget boondoggle is a global positioning satellite system to duplicate what the US already has in place.
Wiki - Galileo is a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) currently being built by the European Union (EU) and European Space Agency (ESA). The €5.3 billion project is named after the famous Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei. One of the political aims with Galileo is to provide a high-accuracy positioning system upon which European nations can rely independent from the Russian GLONASS and US GPS systems, which can be disabled for commercial users in times of war or conflict.
[...] The navigation system is intended to provide measurements down to the metre range as a free service ...
Press Releases
The EU’s Galileo satellite project could cost UK taxpayers £2.6 billion more than originally planned Oct 17, 2010
Open Europe has today published a new briefing showing that the cost to European taxpayers of developing and running the EU’s Galileo satellite project for 20 years has gone from €2.6 billion under the original estimates (from 2000) – to a staggering €22.2 billion, according to recently leaked information.
The costs of the EU's Galileo satellite system are still skyrocketing Jan 2011
Europe's answer to the American GPS navigation system threatens to become a financial black hole. According to a German newspaper, Brussels now calculates that the Galileo project will cost more to build, take longer to complete -- and make losses in the long term.
Last week brought further embarrassments to the two biggest and most megalomaniac projects the EU has ever undertaken. One was the suspension of its vast carbon trading scheme, the chief component of its drive to fight global warming, after it was discovered that internet hackers had stolen carbon emission permits worth £35 million. The second was the suspension of a top German businessman after it was revealed, by WikiLeaks, that he had told US diplomats the real, and carefully hidden, purpose of the Galileo space project.
The offence of Mr Berry Smutny, the now-suspended CEO of a German firm which has a £500 million contract to build 14 satellites for the Galileo global positioning system, was that in 2009, according to Wikileaks, he told senior Americans at a private dinner party that it was a “stupid idea”, intended only to serve French interests at the expense of EU taxpayers.
Galileo leaks Jan 2011
The basic story should have got wide coverage – far wider than it did. It involved a man called Berry Smutny, the head of a German firm, OHB Technology. He was working on the EU's Galileo satellite navigation system, being built as a rival to the US GPS system, and had called it a "stupid idea" being pushed by France for military reasons.
This comment was in a leaked US diplomatic cable, sent in October 2009 from the US embassy in Berlin and obtained by WikiLeaks. It was then picked up and released by Aftenposten.
Smutny, whose firm had been jointly awarded a €566 million contract to develop 14 satellites for the system, had condemned the project as "a waste of EU taxpayers' money championed by French interests." He claimed the EU desire to develop a redundant but alternative to GPS was "spearheaded by the French after an incident during the Kosovo conflict when the US military 'manipulated' GPS to support military operations."
Since this time, he said, France had aggressively corralled EU support to invest in Galileo development - in order that their missile guidance systems are free of any GPS reliance. Smutny added that the irony for German investment in Galileo is that some of France's nuclear missiles are aimed at Berlin.  More to the point though, much precision-guided conventional ordnance relies on GPS, and that is where the money and power is.
Europe-based Fusion Project Draws Heat Over Funding
There is probably no more sorry field of clean energy research than fusion. The quest to harness the power of the sun—without carbon emissions—has long attracted quixotic dreamers, amateur fusioneers and straight hucksters.
But by its own, low standards, fusion research is in a sorry state. The only large, serious, potentially viable project—the multinational International Thermonuclear Experimental Research Reactor (Iter)  in France—has been beset by budgeting issues since it was first conceived at a Geneva summit in 1985. Facing another cash crisis, EU member states decided yesterday that they will have to dip into the European Union's budget—including money usually used to finance other scientific research—to keep the project going.
The southern France-based machine is designed to prove the concept that fusing hydrogen nuclei can be a source of power: so far, fusion has only been achieved by putting far more energy into a system than the fusion itself produces.
At an Agriculture and Fish Council meeting on 12 July, member states agreed to inject an extra 1.4 billion euros to cover a shortfall in building costs in 2012-13. They want the funds to come from a variety of sources within the existing Brussels budget, including from a research budget called the Framework Programme 7. According to nature.com, "The proposal has alarmed scientists, who say that it will rob researchers of vital funds at a time when governments are planning to scale back domestic research budgets in response to the global economic downturn. "I think it's a small catastrophe in the present situation,"  Helga Nowotny, the president of the European Research Council, which funds research across Europe, told nature.com. "It's bad for European research."
Although over-budget, Iter's biggest challenge since its inception has been pork-barrel politics. It is a collaboration between the EU, the US, Russia, Japan, China, India and South Korea. For years, construction was delayed by squabbling over where the facility should be located—and hence which country would benefit most of the massive project. (After a stand-off between Japan and France, Japan blinked.) But the U.S. has always been wishy-washy about the fusion project, with some U.S. scientists saying it won't work and others saying that it shouldn't take money away from domestic fusion research programs. The U.S. cut its support drastically in 1996 and then pulled out entirely in 1998. It only rejoined again in early 2003 after plans to scale back the original project and keep costs more manageable.
That hasn't happened. /more
Nuclear fusion finance plan rejected by EU Parliament BBC
[...] The original plan for Iter, construction of which began in 2008, was to build the experiment within 10 years, at a budget of 5bn euros.
But a range of issues, from technical to personnel matters, have conspired to inflate Iter's final price.
Many commentators now expect it to be in the region of 15bn euros.
Europe is responsible for 45% of the total cost, which the European Commission says will amount to 6.6bn euros.
Iter's six other partners - China, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US - are each contributing 9% of the final cost.
Iter is not expected to begin operations until much later this decade. Even then, these will be shake-down tests; full fusion power will not be achieved until the 2020s.
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Using the European Commission's history as an indicator, 15bn is likely to end in excess of 45.
Windmills, biofuel, carbon taxes, energy policy, French fusion, French GPS, an illegal EC (term expired Oct 2009), etc. What on Earth was Blair thinking when he enrolled us into the political system? What was Brown thinking when he signed the Lisbon constitution? What is Cameron thinking not holding the promised referendum on either the Lisbon con or membership or both? Oh, that's right, they aren't/weren't thinking, just following instructions.
Whistle blower needed. Badly.
Daily Express - Get Us Out Of Europe (pdf)