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01 December 2010 @ 07:12 pm
Global Warming and Phanerozoic Climate Changes  

 
                               Presentation




GLOBAL WARMING AND
PHANERZOIC CLIMATE CHANGES


Déja vu?

Causes, Speculations and IPCC Postulates

Peter H. Zeigler, Ph.D.

November 2010

(For the author's CV go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeigler )


Note: panels are clickable for a higher resolution view in a new window.

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See also: Holzhauser H., 2008. Dendrochronologische Auswertung fossiler Hölzer zur Rekonstruktion der nacheiszeitlichen Gletschergeschichte Bull. angew. Geol. Vol. 13/2, 23-41.
Holzhauser, H., 2009. Auf dem Holzweg zur Gletschergeschichte. Mitteilungen der Naturforschenden Gesellschaft von Bern, Vol.66, 173-206
During Roman times (400 BC to 400 AC) the glaciers had retreated to free most of the Alpine passes. During 400 - 700 AC they advanced again during a phase of climatic deterioration that spawned the great migrations. During the great Medieval Warming, spanning 700-1300 AC, the Alpine glaciers had retreated again to about the present level. During the Little Ice age (1300 - 1850) they advanced once more and started to retreat again during the Modern Warming.


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Temperatures after C,R, Scotese, 2002. Analysis of the Temperature Oscillations in Geological Eras.
CO2 after Berner, R.A., Kothavala Z., 2001. GEOCARB III: a revised model of Atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic times. American Journal of Science 301, 182-204
Throughout Phanerozoic times the Earth's climate has undergone repeatedly major changes. Not only have average global temperatures changed by as much as 10 0C but also the CO2 content of the atmosphere has changed and has been at times up to 20 times higher than at present. This graph summarizes Phanerozoic climate changes as presently documented.
The temperatures and atmospheric CO2 content given in this graph were reconstructed from proxies, such as sedimentologic and paleontological data and specifically from the isotope ratio 16O/18O of carbonates (CaCO3, MgCO3) and organic matter.
During the Late Precambrian and Late Ordovician glaciations the atmospheric CO2 content was probably 10 times higher than at present. During the Permo-Carboniferous glaciation temperatures were relatively high whilst the CO2 content of the atmosphere was low.
Compared with the warm Mesozoic, the Holocene ice-house climate is characterized by low temperatures and a very low CO2 content of the atmosphere. Gradual recovery from the Little Ice Age, which had ended around 1715, spawned the Anthropogenic Global Warming Hysteria.
At geological time scales temperatures and CO2 do not appear to correlate.
Veizer et al. Evidence for decoupling of atmosphericCO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon. Nature 408, 698-701 (2000)


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Veizer, J., et al. 1999. 87Sr/86Sr, d13C and d18O evolution of Phanerozoic seawater. Chemical Geology 161, 59-88.
Veizer, J., Godderis, Y., François, L.M., 2000. Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic Eon. Nature 408, 698-701.
Royer et al. 2004. CO2 as the primary driver of Phanerozoic Climate. GSA-Today. March 2004, 5-10.
Royer, D.L., 2006. CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic. Geochemical et Cosmochimica Acta 70, 5665-5675.


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Atmospheric CO2 concentration proxies are: Air inclusions in Antarctic ice cores Stomata frequency analyses of fossilised land plants in lake and swamp deposits 87Sr/86Sr and 12C/13C isotope ratios in marine and pedogenic carbonates.


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CO2 values were very high during the early Paleozoic, decreased sharply during the late Paleozoic, increased again during the Mesozoic to decrease after 140 Ma to the low Holocene levels.
During the Permo-Carboniferous and Neogene glaciations CO2 values were below 500 ppm. During the Mesozoic green-house CO2 values rose significantly. The Paleogene green-house was characterized by decreasing CO2 values. The Holocene ice-houseCO2 values vary between 210 and 385 ppm.
The Devonian and Carboniferous draw-down of the atmospheric CO2 content coincides with the deposition of extensive marine carbonate sequences and the rapid development of land plants during the Devonian and Carboniferous (Gymnosperms) and the development of major coal swamps during the Carboniferous. The Late Permian rise in CO2 coincides with the deglaciation of Gondwana as it drifted out of a south-polar position and related warming and CO2 degassing of the world oceans. The steady decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations beginning in Mid-Cretaceous times coincides with the rapid proliferation of the Angiosperms. Distribution of the continents and related ocean current patterns, as well as changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun and changes in solar activity have a strong bearing on the Earth's climate.
Shaviv N.J. & Veizer. J., 2003.Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate. GSA Today July 2003.
Royer, D.L., 2006. CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 70, 5665-5675.
Soon, W., 2007. Implications of the secondary role of Carbon Dioxide and Methane forcing on climate change: past, present, future. Physical Geography 28 (2), 97-125
Veizer et al. 2000. Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon. Nature 408,698-701 (2000).


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Note the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715, the Little Ice Age) and during the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825). Solar activity has increased during the second half of the 20th century. This graph can be interpreted as indicating that changes in solar activity are the primary cause of climate change.
See also: Scafetta N., 2010. Empirical evidence for celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2010), doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2010.04.015
Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J. L.; Sheeley, N. R., Jr. 2005. Modeling the Sun's Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713.
The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 625, Issue 1, pp. 522-538.
Lean, j., 2000. Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,VOL. 27, NO. 16, 2425-2428.


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Source of graph: http://www.friendsofscience.org/ This graph gives lower troposphere temperature changes (from surface up to about 8 km), as determined from the average of two analyses of satellite data up to July 2010. The UAH analysis is from the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the RSS analysis is from Remote Sensing Systems. The two analyses use different methods to adjust for factors such as orbital decay and inter-satellite difference. The best-fit line from January 2002 to January 2010 indicates a declining temperature trend. The Sun's activity, which had increased through most of the 20th century, has recently become quiet, causing a change of trend (see also sunspot histogram slide 15) The green line shows the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, as measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The ripple effect in the CO2 curve is due to the seasonal changes in biomass. During the northern hemisphere summer there is a large uptake of CO2 from growing plants causing a drop in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
For detailed sea-surface temperatures go to drroyspencer.com/---/AMSRE-SST-Global-and-Nino34thru-4-Oct-2010.gif


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Diagram showing the HadCRUT3 monthly global surface air temperature estimate (blue) and the monthly atmospheric CO2 content (red) according to the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The Mauna Loa data series begins in March 1958, and 1958 has therefore been chosen as starting year for the diagram. Reconstructions of past atmospheric CO2 concentrations (before 1958) are not incorporated in this diagram, as such past CO2 values are derived by other means (ice cores, stomata, or older measurements using different methodology), and therefore are not directly comparable with modern atmospheric measurements. The dotted grey line indicates the approximate linear temperature trend, and the boxes in the lower part of the diagram indicate the relation between atmospheric CO2 and global surface air temperature, negative or positive. The annotation "IPCC" indicate the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988. Last month shown: July 2010. Last figure update: 15 August 2010.


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Source: http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/ice-core-graph/
Ice core data clearly indicate that temperatures rose well before the CO2 content of the atmosphere started to rise. Similarly,cooling commenced well before the draw-down of atmospheric CO2 began. This time lag is attributed to rapid solar warming of the atmosphere and slower warming of the oceans. Warming oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere whilst cooling oceans absorb atmospheric CO2.


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(to 1960 blue) Law Dome CO2 Data: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/law/lawco2.txt [dead link]
(from 1960 blue) Mauna Loa CO2 data:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_mm_mlo.dat [dead, try this]
(red) Temperature Data: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt
(orange) Sunspot data: http://sidc.oma.be/DATA/yearssn.dat
De Jager et al. (2010) find that temperature variations during the period 1620-1970 can be attributed to 40% to solar variability (C. de Jager, S. Duhau, B. van Geel, 2010. Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 72, 926-937).
There is a 5-10 years lag in the troposphere temperature response to a solar signal owing to heat storage in the oceans (R.M. Carter , 2010)


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David H. Hathaway and Robert M. Wilson, 2006. Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L18101, doi:10.1029/2006GL027053, 2006.
The minimum values of the aa Index are a proxy for variations of the solar polar magnetic field. This field was so far neglected in studies on the solar influence on climate. Changes in the solar polar field may be related to changes in the solar wind that may influence cloud cover, as postulated by Svensmark et al., 2009.
(Svensmark, H., Torsten, B., Svensmark, J., 2009. Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L15101)


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Source: Wikipedia File: Carbon-14 with activity labels.png
See also: Wikimedia Common File: Carbon14-sunspot.svg
14C data are unreliable from 1945 onward as atomic bombs produce additional 14C, Therefore the 14C curve shown on this diagram stops around 1945


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Beer et al., 1994. 10 Be as an indicator of solar variability and climate. In: NATO ASI Series, Vol, 125: The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate. Edited by Elizabeth Nesme-Ribes @ Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1994, pp. 221-233. This diagram shows variations in solar activity (sunspot number, red) and variations in 10Be precipitation (blue). Note that the 10Be scale is inverted, such that upward pointing spikes indicate lower 10Be levels during periods of increased solar activity (increased solar wind). The10Be record is derived from ice cores and reaches further back in time than the sunspot observations. Note Maunder Minimum and Modern Maximum.
J.Beer, St.Baumgartner, B.Dittrich-Hannen, J.Hauenstein, P.Kubik, Ch.Lukasczyk, W.Mende, R.Stellmacher and M.Suter (1994). Solar Variability Traced by Cosmogenic Isotopes. In: The Sun as a Variable Star: Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variations (eds. J.M. Pap, C. Fröhlich, H.S. Hudson and S.K. Solanki), Cambridge University Press, 291-300.


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F. Steinhilber, J. Bee , C. Fröhlich,, 2009. Total solar irradiance during the Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters 36. L19704, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040142, (2009). For the first time a record of total solar irradiance covering 9300 years is presented, which covers almost the entire Holocene. This reconstruction is based on a recently observationally derived relationship between total solar irradiance (TSI) and the open solar magnetic field. Here we show that the open solar magnetic field can be obtained from the cosmogenic radionuclide 10Be measured in ice cores. Thus, 10Be allows reconstructing the total solar irradiance much further back than the existing record of the sunspot number, which is usually used to reconstruct total solar irradiance. The resulting increase in solar-cycle averaged TSI from the Maunder Minimum (1650-1700) to the present amounts to 0.9 ± 0.4 Wm2. In combination with climate models, our reconstruction offers the possibility to test the claimed links between climate and TSI forcing. The entire record of TSI covering the past 9300 years as given in this figure, shows that throughout this period TSI has varied by approximately 2 Wm2. The average TSI of the entire period lies about 0.4 Wm2 below the current values and is about 0.5 Wm2 higher than the values during the MM. Historical periods of low solar activity are the Dalton (1795-1825), Maunder (Little Ice age1645-1715), Spörner (1450-1550), Wolf (1280-1350) and Oort (1040-1080) Minima.
Further Grand Minima occurred ca. 690 AD, 360 BC, 770 BC, 1390 BC, 2860 BC, 3340 BC, 3500 BC, 3630 BC, 3940 BC, 4230 BC, 4330 BC, 5260 BC, 5460 BC, 5620 BC, 5710 BC, 5990 BC, 6220 BC, 6400 BC, 7040 BC, 7310 BC, 7520 BC, 8220 BC, 9170 BC).
Wanner et al., 2008. Mid- to Late Holocene climate change: an overview. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1791-1828.


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Christian-Dietrich Schönwiese, 1995. Klimaänderung: Daten, Analyse, Prognose. Springer Verlag.


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Source: M. Lockwood, R. Stamper, M.N Wild, 1999. A doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the last 100 years.Nature 399, 437-439The solar wind drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field. Connection between the interplanetary and the Earth's magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment.Changes in the heliospheric magnetic field may be linked with changes in total cloud cover of the Earth, which may influence global climate.
Svensmark, H., T. Bondo, and J. Svensmark (2009), Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds, Geophys. Res.Lett., 36, L15101 ...Jasper Kerby, 2009. Cosmic Rays and Climate. CERN Colloquium 2009.


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Schwabe cycles last on average 11 years but can fluctuate in length between 9 and 12.5 years. Long cycles are characterized by low solar activity whilst short ones are typified by increased solar activity


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Increasing Solar activity ( irradiation) goes hand in hand with an increasing solar wind shielding the Earth from galactic cosmic ray flux, causing a decrease in cloud cover and the Earth's Albedo. The result is accelerated Global Warming.
Left diagram: Source: M. Lockwood, R. Stamper, M.N Wild, 1999. A doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the last 100 years. Nature 399, 437-439
Right diagram: Source: World Meteorological Organization, Press release No. 869, December 8th, 2009 Global temperature 1850-2008 Average annual surface temperature, based on measurements by meteorological stations, ships and satellites, as reported independently by three different groups: NOAA (NCDC) and NASA (GISS) in the US, and the combined Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in the UK (HadCRUT3).


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Source: Wikipedia File Vostok-ice-core-petit.png:420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok, Antarctica research station. Current period is at left. From bottom to top: Solar variation at 65°N due to Milankovitch cycles (connected to 18O). 18O isotope of oxygen. Levels of methane (CH4). Relative temp.
Petit et al., 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420'000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399, 3dJune, 429-436.
Fischer et al., 1999. The ice core record of the atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations. Science 283, 5408, 1712-1714 Mudelsee, M., 2001. The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420ka- Quaternary Science Reviews 20, 583.588.
N. Caillon J. P. Severinghaus, J. Jouzel, J-M- Barnola, J. Kang, V. Y. Lipenkov. . 2003. Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III. Science 299, 5613, 1728-1731.
Abstract: The analysis of air bubbles from ice cores has yielded a precise record of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but the timing of changes in these gases with respect to temperature is not accurately known because of uncertainty in the gas age-ice age difference. We have measured the isotopic composition of argon in air bubbles in the Vostok core during Termination III (~240,000 years before the present). This record most likely reflects the temperature and accumulation change, although the mechanism remains unclear. The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.


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This figure shows the variations in the Earth's orbit, the resulting changes in solar energy flux at high latitude, and the observed glacial cycles. Cyclical changes in total solar irradiation are tacitly implied. According to Milankovitch Theory, the precession of the equinoxes, variations in the tilt of the Earth's axis (obliquity) and changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit are responsible for causing the observed 100 kyr cycle in ice ages by varying the amount of sunlight received by the Earth at different times and locations, particularly high northern latitude summer. These changes in the Earth's orbit are the predictable consequence of interactions between the Earth, its moon, and the other planets.The orbital data shown are from Quinn et al. (1991). Principal frequencies for each of the three kinds of variations are labeled. The solar forcing curve (aka "insolation") is derived from July 1st sunlight at 65 °N latitude according to Jonathan Levine's insolation calculator [1]. The glacial data is from Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) and gray bars indicate interglacial periods, defined here as deviations in the 5 kyr average of at least 0.8 standard deviations above the mean.


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Ref,: Peixoto, J.P. & Oort, A.H., 1992. Physics and Climate, Springer.
IPCC (2007) assumes that with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the CO2 absorption bands will widen, allowing for further warming. Absorption saturation as postulated by Archibald (2007) is rejected (D.C. Archibald, 2007: The Past and Future Climate).
Schmidt et al (2010) attribute the Greenhouse effects as follows: Water vapor about 50%, Clouds about 25%, CO2 about 19%, others about 7%.
For a further discussions see:
T.J. Nelson, Science Notes: Cold Facts on Global Warming. Chris Colose, 2010.
Introduction to feedbacks Schmidt, G.A., Ruedy, R., Miller, R.L., Lacis, A., 2010.
The attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect. Journal of Geophysical Research (in press)


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Whilst IPPC postulates a strongly positive feedback by water vapor, satellite data indicate a strongly negative effect.
S. BONY, R. COLMAN, V.M. KATTSOV, R. P. ALLAN, C.S. BRETHERTON, J-L. DUFRESNE, A. HALL, S. HALLEGATTE, M. M. HOLLAND, W. INGRAM, D. A. RANDALL, B. J. SODEN, G. TSELIOUDIS, M.J. WEBB. 2006.
How Well Do We Understand and Evaluate Climate Change Feedback Processes? JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, vol. 19, 1 AUGUST 2006., 3445-3482.
See also Dessler & S.C. Sherwood 2009. A matter of humidity. Science 323, 1020-1021. Chris Colose, 2010.
Introduction to feedbacks Schmidt, G.A., Ruedy, R., Miller, R.L., Lacis, A., 2010.
The attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect. Journal of Geophysical Research (in press)


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The data is from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
The effects of humidity changes were determined by HARTCODE.See a paper by Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi at http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=503 Ferenc M. Miskolczi  , 2010. THE STABLE STATIONARY VALUE OF THE EARTH'S GLOBAL AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC PLANCKWEIGHTED GREENHOUSE-GAS OPTICAL THICKNESS. Energy and Environment 21 (4), 243-262.


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Source of diagrams: Data file: hadat2_monthly_global_mean.txt; URL: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadat/hadat2.html
For a detailed discussion see: Dr. David Evan, 2008. The Missing Hotspot. Updated September 2010


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Ref: Archibald, D., 2007. The Past and Future of Climate.
Lavoisier Group 2007 Workshop. 'Rehabilitating Carbon Dioxide'.
David C. Archibald, 2008. Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States. International Conference on Climate Change . March,2008, pdf


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Miskolczi, F.M., 2007. Greenhouse effect in Semi-transparent Planetary Atmospheres, Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 111(1), 1-40.
Miskolczi, F.M., 2010. THE STABLE STATIONARY VALUE OF THE EARTH'S GLOBAL AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC PLANCK WEIGHTED GREENHOUSE-GAS OPTICAL THICKNESS. Energy and Environment 21 (4), 243-262.
Archibald, D. 2007. The Past and Future of Climate.
Lavoisier Group 2007 Workshop. 'Rehabilitating Carbon Dioxide'.
Veizer,J., 2005. Celestial Climate Driver: a perspective from four billion years of the carbon cycle. Geosciences Canada 32, 13-28.


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Diagram on the left showing the HadCRUT3 monthly global surface air temperature estimate (blue) and the monthly atmospheric CO2 content (red) according to the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The Mauna Loa data series begins in March 1958, and 1958 has therefore been chosen as starting year for the diagram. Reconstructions of past atmospheric CO2 concentrations (before 1958) are not incorporated in this diagram, as such past CO2 values are derived by other means (ice cores, stomata, or older measurements using different methodology), and therefore are not directly comparable with modern atmospheric measurements. The dotted grey line indicates the approximate linear temperature trend, and the boxes in the lower part of the diagram indicate the relation between atmospheric CO2 and global surface air temperature, negative or positive. The annotation "IPCC" indicate the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988. Last month shown: July 2010. Last figure update: 15 August 2010.
Diagram on the right showing Variation of global surface air temperaturesHadCRUT3) and observed sunspot number (NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center; NGDC) since 1960. The global monthly average surface air temperature is a cooperative effort between the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), UK. The thin lines represent the monthly values, while the thick lines is the simple running 37 month average, nearly corresponding to a running 3 yr average. The variation in global temperature is about 0.2oC during one sunspot period, superimposed on the general increasing temperature trend during the period shown. The somewhat asymmetrical temperature 'bumps' around 1973 and 1998 are reflecting oceanographic El Niño effects. Last month incorporated: January 2010 (HadCRUT3) and January 2010 (NOAA). Last diagram update: 27 February 2010.


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Source of Diagram: Roy W. Spencer, 2008. Satellite and Climate Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change.


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Föhlich, C., 2009. Observational evidence of a long-term trend in total solar irradiance. Astronomy and Astrophysics 501(3): L27L30.
Daily TSI of the PMOD composite (updated until end of March 2010, Version 41 62 1003a) and extrapolated with a proxy model back to 1976. The amplitudes of the three cycles decrease first and then increase again. The two horizontal lines indicate the value of the minima in 1986 and 2008, respectively. Note the low value of the 2008/9 minimum, which is 0.22 Wm?2 lower than the previous one, or 25% in terms of the mean cycle amplitude. PMOD stands for Physikalisch-Meteorologiogishes Observatorium Davos (World Radiation Centre). The various coloured intervals highlight data recorded by different radiometers which are identified by their acronyms.
See also: N. Scafetta. Climate Change and Its Cause: A discussion about some key issues. SPPI Original Paper, March 4, 2010 (pdf)
Bob Carter, 2010. CLIMATE: THE COUNTER CONSENSUS. The transition between solar sunspot cycles 23 and 24 The average length of solar cycles, from minimum to minimum, is eleven years. The solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 occurred in December 2008, making cycle 23, at 12.5 years long, the longest since 1823. However, the sun remained in a quiescent state through most of 2009, with only intermittent cycle 24 sunspots occurring; by the end of 2009 there had been 771 days without sunspots during the transition. It is established from observation that solar cycles longer than the eleven year average are followed by later cycles of lesser intensity, and, commensurately, a cooler climate. Solar Cycle 23 was three years longer than Cycle 22. Based on the theory originally proposed by Friis-Christensen and Lassen, this implies that cooling of up to 2.2C may occur during Cycle 24 (compared with temperatures during Cycle 23) for the mid-latitude grain growing areas of the northern hemisphere.


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Left diagram: Source: L. McInnes, 2007. In: Wikipedia: Solar Variations. Thick lines for temperature and sunspots: 25 year moving average smoothing of raw data.
Right diagram: Source: Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather, Inc.: Relationship between Solar Cycle Length and Global Temperature Anomalies


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The blue lines are the observed earth-shine data for 1994-1995 and 1999-2003. The black line is the reconstructed albedo from partially overlapping satellite cloud data with respect to the mean of the calibration period 1999 to 2004. The vertical red line shows the cumulative climate forcing of the increase in greenhouse gases during the 20th century, amounting to 2.4 W/m2 according to the IPCC (2001). Note that the climate forcing due to change of the albedo is in W/m2 much greater than that due to the greenhouse gases. Current climate models do not show such large albedo variability This diagram is from the Pallé 2009 PowerPoint presentation. It is a modification of the one given by J. Veizer (2005) in his Fig. 15. Here his figure caption: Reconstructed annual reflectance anomalies (?p*) relative to 1999-2001 calibration interval (shaded). The observed anomalies are represented as a thick line. In general, ?p* is a measure of earth albedo, likely cloudiness, by observing the "earth-shine", the light reflected by Earth's sunlit hemisphere toward the moon and then retroflected from the lunar surface. Note that the decline in albedo (cloudiness) from 1985 to 2000 is a feature that is consistent with the increase in solar irradiance TSI and implicitly also with a decline in cloud nucleation due to diminished CRF. Note also that the cloud-driven changes in the Earth's radiation budget (up to 10 Wm-2) during the last two decades exceed considerably the forcing that is attributed by IPCC (2001) to the entire "industrial", that is post-"Little Ice Age", anthropogenic greenhouse impact (2.4 Wm-2). Adapted from Pallé et al. (2004a).


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The strong solar activity during 1999 to 2001 declined, reached a low in 2009 and is now gradually building up to peak around 2013 at a much lower level than during the peak of solar cycle 23 in 1999-2001 (S. Duhau, C. de Jager, 2010. The forthcoming Grand Minimum in Solar activity. Journal of Cosmology 8, 1983-1999).
Note: Hatthaway/NASA/MSCF predict that cycle 24 culminates in July 2013 at sunspot number of about 64. These predictions are for "smoothed" International Sunspot Numbers. The smoothing is usually over time periods of about a year or more so both the daily and the monthly values for the International Sunspot Number should fluctuate about our predicted numbers. The dotted lines on the prediction plots indicate the expected range of the monthly sunspot numbers. Also note that the "Boulder" numbers reported daily at www.spaceweather.com are typically about 35% higher than the International sunspot number. There is still considerable uncertainties in these predictions, which lately have been consistently revised downward.
Solar Cycle 24 was 12.5 years long, the longest since 1823 and 3 years longer than cycle 22. Historically, solar cycles longer than the average 11 years are followed by cycles of lower intensity, implying decreasing temperatures.


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For further information see: http://www.friendsofscience.org/
"Peak Oil " is distinct from "Climate Change". We are now near the peak of Oil production. Gas may still have some room to grow, once fields are connected to consumers at gigantic costs. Since the beginning of human industrial activity over the last 200 years , Coal, later Oil and Gas have been massively exploited. Huge Coal known resource remain - but Oil resources have been exploited at a rate at which new discoveries cannot replace production, and this since about 20 years.
Recent Oil and Gas exploration ventures in previously inaccessible deep waters have had some successes in the Gulf Coast, Nigeria, Angola, Brazil. While substantial, they do not offer more than a minor replacement of what has been consumed. These exploration ventures operate at the limit of technology, as demonstrated by the recent Macondo disaster. Production will be demanding! These developments are only commercially viable at high and rising O/G prices. Lets all save the O/G resource now. It is not the warmer climate that will destroy our way of living! The imminent shortages of fossil energy will be more dramatic for our industrialized world.


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Available in
PDF format. Thanks to Dr. Zeigler and FoS