April 29th, 2011

CCNet: IPCC Model Predictions May Be Wrong

CCNet – 28 April 2011

The Climate Policy Network

New Study: IPCC Model Predictions May Be Wrong

When purported “scientific experts” emulate spiritual prophets they overstep their bounds, and we can no longer trust them. --Larry Bell, Forbes, 26 April 2011

This could mean that current IPCC model predictions for the next century are wrong, and there will be no cooling in the North Atlantic to partially offset the effects of global climate change over North America and Europe. Instead, increasing Agulhas leakage could stabilize the oceanic heat transport carried by the Atlantic overturning circulation. -- Lisa Beal, National Science Foundation, 27 April 2011

Under slowing or full Atlantic MOC shut-down, temperatures on Europe’s western margin would be most affected, together with further rises in relative sea level on European coasts. Although there are no indications of an imminent change in the North Atlantic THC it is recognised that MOC shut-down, should it occur, is likely to have potential socio-economic impacts for Europe and more widely. Hence, it would be valuable to consider these impacts in developing climate policy. --IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

The ocean current that gives western Europe its relatively balmy climate is stuttering, raising fears that it might fail entirely and plunge the continent into a mini ice age. The dramatic finding comes from a study of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, which found a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream. The slow-down, which has long been predicted as a possible consequence of global warming, will give renewed urgency to intergovernmental talks in Montreal, Canada, this week on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. --Fred Pearce, New Scientist, 30 November 2005

 Another important point is that the ozone hole is not even mentioned in the summary for policymakers issued with the last IPCC report. The fact that ozone was an unappreciated effect in terms of climate that may be a major influence is yet another reason why the last IPCC report is flawed, and another example of the fact that should not have been needed to say: the science isn’t settled. --David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 26 April 2011

1) New Study: 'IPCC Model Predictions May Be Wrong' - National Science Foundation, 27 April 2011

2 ) David Whitehouse: Another Thing The IPCC Missed - The Observatory, 26 April 2011

3) Irish Policy Review Calls For End To Green Energy Subsidies - RTÉ News 27 April 2011

4) Climate-Policy Goals Of German Government No Longer Attainable After Anti-Nuclear U-Turn - Finfacts, 26 April 2011

5) Andrew Montford On Green Churnalism - Bishop Hill, 25 April 2011

6) Nick Grealy: Shale Gas's WOW! moment USA version - No Hot Air, 27 April 2011

7) Larry Bell: Climate Change As Religion - Forbes, 26 April 2011

Courtesy of Dr Peiser, GWPF

Casting my mind back I recall that high levels dust blown from the Sahel region of Africa and deposited in the Gulf of Mexico was associated with periods of rapid climate change, shown by a core from the region. This can be by a number of mechanisms. The fine particles in the atmosphere themselves cause less solar radiation to reach the Atlantic, they also increase cloudiness by providing condensation bases. A third mechanism is by raising iron content and so fertilising the Gulf through which the THC flows, the resulting increase in plankton reduces the depth of penetration of solar radiation so decreasing the depth of cool Gulf waters. This in turn decreases the depth (thickness) of the current as it passes through the Gulf and so it is more rapidly dispersed. Another mechanism may be by the influence of the dust on stratospheric water vapour, condensation causing drying. This reduces the availability of free oxygen and hydrogen from photolytic breakdown of the molecules, a possible ozone depletion reducing factor by the decrease in H available to form complex chlorine based molecules and by warming the air by the dust absorbing radiation, ozone volume increases more rapidly in a warming environment due to the raising of the height of the stratopause causing a reduction in the downflow of N ions. Changes in ozone volumes influence trade winds' strength and direction that has a large influence on ocean currents.
Greening of the desert regions due to increasing carbon dioxide levels could be a climate stabilising factor. Perhaps when sanity and honesty make a showing in politics (there's a first time for everything but don't hold your breath) the production of CO2 will be rewarded.
The UN “disappears” yet another inconvenient climate claim, and once again, botches the cover up
It seems there’s a purge on at the UN to remove failed climate claims. Last week it was the 50 million climate refugees that never materialized and was covered up, this week it’s the poor of Africa they’ve “disappeared”.
Horner: Michael Mann may have something to hide
Inferred by U turn by his protective uni due to pressure from alarmist activist groups.
Old but not stale by any means
If Climate “Researchers” Became Doctors… here
Fred Singer’s items posted at American Thinker can be found  here. His latest, The Sustainable Development Hoax is up to his usual standard.
Lubos Motl promotes green religion here. [Even bad press is better than no press...]

Libyagate: Nuclear mustard gas. Younis - who?

How much as CO2 offsets should the military have to buy (from China and India)? What are the CO2 emissions of NATO jets, 1000, 2000lb bombs, cruise missiles, rockets and the fires they cause, and all those ships... How green is your gov't now Mr Cameron?

It was postulated some time ago that the US could be looking for an excuse to use mini nukes and the store of mustard type gas that the Libyan gov't has not yet completely disposed of was suggested as a candidate. Two points to note. Firstly the store is in east Libya, second is that the Libyan government has vowed to not use it. However it is a useful propaganda item and leverage when asking for Apache helicopters, etc. -
Col Gaddafi still has quarter of chemical weapons stockpile  Teleg
Gaddafi ready to use mustard gas in a "desperate" fight to the death, senior rebel commander claims.
[...] Col. Gaddafi is known to have around ten tons of mustard gas remaining from stocks that he had been destroying under the supervision of a United Nations body, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
[Wiki page for Younis]

Some more revealing background on Younis is exposed in Tarpley.net's "The CIA’s Libya Rebels: The Same Terrorists who Killed US, NATO Troops in Iraq"
[...] Rebel Leaders Jalil and Younis, Plus Most of Rebel Council are Members of the al Qaeda-linked Harabi Tribe
The result of the present inquiry is that the Libyan branch of Al Qaeda represents a continuum with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group centered in Darnah and Benghazi. The ethnic base of the Libyan Islamic fighting group is apparently to be found in the anti-Qaddafi Harabi tribe, the tribe which makes up the vast majority of the rebel council including the two dominant rebel leaders, Abdul Fatah Younis and Mustafa Abdul Jalil. The evidence thus suggests that the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, the elite of the Harabi tribe, and the rebel council supported by Obama all overlap for all practical purposes. As the late Foreign Minister of Guyana Fred Wills, a real fighter against imperialism and neo-colonialism, taught me many years ago, political formations in developing countries (and not just there) are often a mask for ethnic and religious rivalries; so it is in Libya. The rebellion against Qaddafi is a toxic brew compounded of fanatical hatred of Qaddafi, Islamism, tribalism, and localism. From this point of view, Obama has foolishly chosen to take sides in a tribal war.
Yet in Stratfor's
Libya's Tribal Dynamics" - The Obeidat Tribe The Obeidat are centered in the far northeastern military garrison town of Tobruk. Two top officials in the regime that come from this tribe have made very public defections in recent days: Maj. Gen. Suleiman Mahmud (whose full name is Suleiman Mahmud al-Obeidi), commander of the Tobruk military region, and Maj. Gen. Abdel Fattah Younis (whose full name also includes “al-Obeidi” at the end), the former interior minister. The latter announced his defection on Al Arabiya television Feb. 23. Mahmud, meanwhile, insisted after his defection that the tribes are not as fractious as Gadhafi claims, disputing the notion that Gadhafi’s removal would lead to chaos.
Clarification comes via Planned Regime Change in Libya - Tarpley believes the Harabi tribe may be trying "to seize dominance over the" others. "The Harabi are already practically hegemonic among the tribes of Cyrenaica (Libya's eastern coastal region). At the center of the Harabi Confederation is the Obeidat tribe, which is divided into 15 sub-tribes." Harabi apparently has links to violent elements in Benghazi. They're former US enemies, now allies against Gaddafi to oust him.
Had Younis stayed with the Libyan gov't he would have been seen as a traitor to his own tribe.

Pig in a poke  CounterPunch
[...] Thomas Mountain at CounterPunch ("Bombing Libya," March 23) raises some unpleasant questions about the Benghazi rebels. Benghazi, the city in Libya closest to Italy, has for years been a center of human trafficking from sub-Saharan Africa. An average of a thousand black African refugees a day pass through Benghazi in hopes of escaping to Europe. So Benghazi was the seat of an enormous complex of gangs controlling the human trafficking trade, many of them exploiting their human cargo as ruthlessly as the "coyotes" on the U.S.-Mexican border. The Quaddafi government, according to Mountain, had been unsuccessfully trying to suppress this trade for years. As a result, the criminal underworld of Benghazi has been a prime supporter of the rebellion.
Benghazi is also home to a large number of black African guest workers who do work that Libyans regard as "dirty." Native youth, who refuse to take these jobs, are frequently unemployed and idle. So they wind up joining youth gangs that engage in racist harrassment of black African guest workers. These discontented youth were at the heart of the protest movement.
This raises some interesting questions about the reported massacre of black Africans by Benghazi militia -- supposedly because black Africans were recruited as mercenaries by Quaddafi -- doesn't it? I don't know if Thomas Mountain's account is correct. But at least it should make us think twice when we hear the talking heads like Ed Schultz on MSNBC referring to Libyan "freedom fighters."

.Libya: It’s Not About Oil, It’s About Currency and Loans  Infowars
[...] we might ask ourselves: What happens when a “rogue” country threatens to bring the banking system that benefits the corporatocracy to its knees? What happens to an “empire” when it can no longer effectively be overtly imperialistic?
One definition of “Empire” (per my book The Secret History of the American Empire) states that an empire is a nation that dominates other nations by imposing its own currency on the lands under its control. The empire maintains a large standing military that is ready to protect the currency and the entire economic system that depends on it through extreme violence, if necessary. The ancient Romans did this. So did the Spanish and the British during their days of empire-building. Now, the US or, more to the point, the corporatocracy, is doing it and is determined to punish any individual who tries to stop them. Qaddafi is but the latest example.
One definition of “Empire” (per my book The Secret History of the American Empire) states that an empire is a nation that dominates other nations by imposing its own currency on the lands under its control. The empire maintains a large standing military that is ready to protect the currency and the entire economic system that depends on it through extreme violence, if necessary. The ancient Romans did this. So did the Spanish and the British during their days of empire-building. Now, the US or, more to the point, the corporatocracy, is doing it and is determined to punish any individual who tries to stop them. Qaddafi is but the latest example.
[I would have said It's not JUST about oil, (there are also the strategic considerations too). This essay adds further to the clarification of the ingredients in the Libyan stew.]

Muammar Gaddafi is arming Libyan 17-year-olds [& 18 y.o., 19 y.o., 20.y.o. etc] Guardian
to build a "home front" against Nato military intervention and the possibility of rebels from the east of the country reaching largely loyalist towns and cities in the west. As part of the drive towards an unofficial civilian army, the government is releasing thousands of AK-47 assault rifles into communities and is organising classes in the use of weapons.

Some insight to Cameron's mindset was provided by Slog in early March -The Mail’s LSE scoop barely scratches the surface of our incompetence

Other updates
Bahrain sentences four protesters to death, deepening anger among Shiites CSMonitor
A military court today sentenced four Shiite demonstrators to death, and handed life sentences to three more, for the deaths of two policemen. Rights activists say the detainees were tortured and denied legal rights.
[Accused of deliberately running down security officers. However I'm against the death penalty for any crime.]

Update on Libyan war: April 28

Tripoli Bishop: Bombs Striking Everywhere, Italian Government Should Resign

Several Injured, Perhaps Dead In NATO Air Strike On Libyan Capital

Libya To Take Legal Action Against NATO Over Gaddafi Assassination Attempt

NATO’s Month-Long Air War: 4,100 Sorties, 1,700 Strike Missions

Russia Says EU, NATO Ready To Start Ground Operation In Libya

West Plans Libyan Invasion Under Humanitarian Guise

Libya Trains Volunteer Army To Fight Against NATO Invasion

Bishop Denounces NATO Bombing Campaign In Libya

War Against Libya As Seen From Caribbean, Latin America

Russia, China Oppose Foreign Interference In Syria

US OKs Oil Deals With Libya Opposition PressTV

Out of bombs, lobbing lumps of concrete instead. Sticks held in reserve.
France uses unexplosive bombs in Libya: spokesman

Jesus wept

You can't get away from the damn wedding.

This is sad from more than one point of view. Evidence of how far along the path to being a police state the UK has moved, and the fact that the mindset of enemies created by the state makes it necessary. OTOH aren't we supporting al Qaeda in Libya - why would they attack?
Al-Qaeda, 'Prince William fans' pose a threat to the royal wedding  Herald Sun via Infowars
A rogue bombing of a major London transport hub is one of numerous possible threats clouding the royal wedding.
That is the view of the former commander of the royalty protection squad, Dai Davies.
As billions of people around the globe turn their attention to the marriage of Prince William and Catherine Middleton on April 29, sharp-shooters will take up positions on rooftops near Westminster Abbey.
Given less than a minute's notice, if needed, a veritable army will flood the area which is set to stage the royal nuptials.

The University of St Andrews, where Kate Middleton and Prince William studied, is to review how its Syrian studies centre is financed. The Guardian revealed that the centre was funded by Sami Khiyami, Syrian ambassador to the UK, whose invitation to the royal wedding has sparked controversy. The centre's board of advisers is also closely associated with the Damascus regime.
[Demonisation underway in exactly the same way Libya has been denigrated. How soon before Syria is accused Investing money in foreign countries while joblessness and poverty increased, of poisoning the water with fluoride, pillaging pension funds, causing death by heat exposure due to criminally high energy bills avoiding air conditioner use, poisoning the air with CO2 and otherwise being ungreen? That last one couldn't be used against Gaddafi as he's a greenie.]

Commiserations to our cousins in the US hit by severe whirlwinds and storms.