March 16th, 2011

IPCC science is plain wrong, A Note from Nasif S. Nahle

I was catching up with the posts to Jen Marohasy's site and found this essay that elegantly explains the journey of energy with regard to frequencies absorbed by CO2. I had postulated that IR photon impact energy was used in work raising the vibration rate and this energy would be emitted over a greater length of time as the conversion from radiative to kinetic happens faster than the reverse process so the IR emitted would be at a longer wavelength. (Think of a bell, hit it, it rings immediately but it takes time to stop ringing.) Nasif's explanation has made this action - response much clearer. I was surprised the wavelength was so much longer.

Recycling of Heat in the Atmosphere is Impossible: A Note from Nasif S. Nahle

Key diagrams on the Earth’s energy budget depicts an exchange of energy between the surface and the atmosphere and their subsystems considering each system as if they were blackbodies with emissivities and absorptivities of 100% 1, 2.

This kind of analyses shows a strange “multiplication” of the heat transferred from the surface to the atmosphere and from the atmosphere to the surface which is unexplainable from a scientific viewpoint. The authors of those diagrams adduce that such increase of energy in the atmosphere obeys to a “recycling” of the heat coming from the surface by the atmosphere 1, 2, as if the atmosphere-surface were a furnace or a thermos and the heat was a substance.

Such “recycling” of heat by the atmosphere does not occur in the real world for the reasons that I will expose later in this note.

Few authors have avoided plotting such unreal recycling of heat and only show the percentages related to the flow of energy among systems and subsystems of the Earth 3, 4.

We do know that serious science makes a clear distinction between heat and internal energy. However, we will not touch this abnormal definition of heat from those erroneous diagrams1, 2 on the annual Earth’s energy budget.

In addition to the wrong concept of heat that the authors let glimpse in their articles 1, 2, the recycling of heat by the atmosphere does not and cannot occur in the real world. There are many physical factors, already proven experimentally and observationally5, that nullify the ideas of the recycling of heat by the atmosphere.

The principal physical factor that inhibits the recycling of heat in the atmosphere is the degradation of the energy each time it is absorbed and emitted by any system10. This degradation of energy is well described by the second law of thermodynamics6, whose fundamental formulation is as follows:

The energy is always dispersed or diffused from an energy field with lesser available microstates towards an energy field with higher available microstates5.

In other words, the energy is always dispersed or diffused from the system with a higher energy density towards the system with a lower energy density5, 10.

The purpose of this essay is to demonstrate that some evaluations 1, 2 on the Earth’s annual energy budget are not considering the laws of basic physics and thermodynamics, that the “recycling” of heat in the atmosphere is unphysical and that the carbon dioxide works like a coolant of the surface, rather than like a warmer. / Continues with Analysis and finishes In Conclusion. Well worth reading.
(The numbers refer to a list of references, many linked.)

CCNet and Cooler Heads' recommended reading

CCNet – 15 March 2011 The Climate Policy Network

Gas Burning Bright As Nuclear Renaissance Melts Down

Neither new nuclear, coal with carbon capture and sequestration, wind nor solar are economic. Natural gas is queen. It is domestically abundant and is the bridge to the future. – John Rowe, The Globe and Mail, 15 March 2011

President Barack Obama’s energy agenda appears to be jinxed. While Japan’s nuclear meltdown may be an ocean away, the industry has quickly become the latest example of a policy in peril not long after the White House embraced it. --Darren Samuelsohn, Politico, 15 March 2011

1) Gas Burning Bright As Nuclear Renaissance Melts Down - The Globe and Mail, 15 March 2011
The Japanese disaster “will put new nuclear development on ice,” said Toronto energy consultant Tom Adams, the former executive director of Energy Probe. He said the nuclear industry was already facing challenges, noting that vast shale gas resources in North America and other parts of the world were starting to make cheaper gas-fired plants the electricity generators of choice. – Eric Reguly

2) Cooler Heads: Emerging Economies Move Ahead With Nuclear Plan - The New York Times, 14 March 2011
Despite Japan’s crisis, India and China and some other energy-ravenous countries say they plan to keep using their nuclear power plants and building new ones.  With those two countries driving the expansion — and countries from elsewhere in Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East also embracing nuclear power in response to high fossil fuel prices and concerns about global warming — the world’s stock of 443 nuclear reactors could more than double in the next 15 years, according to the World Nuclear Association, an industry trade group.

3) Nick Butler: Nuclear Power Halted In Its Tracks - Financial Times, 14 March 2011

4) Japan's Nuclear Crisis Threatens Obama's Decarbonisation Strategy - Bloomberg, 15 March 2011
Obama’s energy plan relies heavily on nuclear power to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions harmful to the climate as well as to reduce dependence on imported oil. The president proposed tripling federal loan guarantees to $54.5 billion to help build new reactors in the 2012 budget plan he sent to Congress. -- Jeremy van Loon and Mark Chediak

5) After Shale Gas, The Shale Oil Revolution? - The Jerusalem Post, 11 March 2011
New data suggests Israel may not only have much larger gas resources than believed, but also the 3rd largest deposit of oil shale in the world. As a consequence of these new estimates, Israel may emerge as the third largest deposit of oil shale, after the US and China. --Dore Gold

6) Lesley Downer: After Each Disaster Japan Rebuilds Bigger And Better - The Daily Telegraph, 15 March 2011
Throughout the history of Japan, its cities have been destroyed again and again by war, fire and earthquake. After each catastrophe, the Japanese have rebuilt, bigger and better. One hopes and expects that they will do the same again. –Lesley Downer

CCNet  - 16 March 2011 The Climate Policy Network

Japan’s Tsunami Threatens Global Warming Movement

1) Andrew Bolt: Japan’s Tsunami Threatens The Global Warming Movement - Herald Sun, 16 March 2011
The nuclear emergency is Japan will be a disaster for global warming activists. For a start, Japan’s own emissions will most likely rise in the medium term, now that so many nuclear plants - one of the most greenhouse-friendly power sources - have been knocked out:‘Analysts think Japan will compensate for the shutdown of its 10 nuclear reactors by relying more heavily on traditional fossil fuels.’

2) Sara Mansur: Nuclear Moratorium in Germany Could Cause Spike in CO2 Emissions -Breakthrough Institute, 15 March 2011
Carbon dioxide emissions in Germany may increase by 4 percent annually in response to a moratorium on seven of the country's oldest nuclear power plants, as power generation is shifted from nuclear power, a zero carbon source, to the other carbon-intensive energy sources that currently make up the country's energy supply.

3) Alex B. Berezow: Risk-Free Energy: Surely, You Must Be Joking - RealClearScience, 15 March 2011
It was only a matter of time before environmentalists would point toward Japan, say, "We told you so," and then declare a moral victory for anti-nuclear activism. Merely for the sake of argument, let's pretend they are right. Eliminating nuclear power might be a nice experiment. But there is one big problem: Environmentalists are trying to eliminate all the other alternatives, as well. All sources of energy pose some sort of risk or cost. Risk-free, cost-free energy is a complete myth and simply does not, and will not, exist. Groups that never propose realistic solutions are simply not worth taking seriously.

4) Ronald Bailey: After The Tsunami, A Way Forward For Nuclear Power? - Reason Online, 15 March 2011
The main problem with energy supply systems is that for the last 100 years, governments have insisted on meddling with them, using subsidies, setting rates, and picking technologies. Consequently, entrepreneurs, consumers, and especially policymakers have no idea which power supply technologies actually provide the best balance between cost-effectiveness and safety.

5) Paul Driessen: Welcome to the Third World - Free Republic, 14 March 2011

6) Nick Grealy At The Parliamentary Shale Gas Inquiry - No Hot Air, 15 March 2011

7) And Finally: The Guardian's Rare Energy Realisms - Editorial, The Guardian, 15 March 2011
For all the emotive force of events in Japan, though, this is one issue where there is a pressing need to listen to what our heads say about the needs of the future, as opposed to subjecting ourselves to jittery whims of the heart. Most of the easy third ways are illusions. Energy efficiency has been improving for over 200 years, but it has worked to increase not curb demand. Off-shore wind remains so costly that market forces would simply push pollution overseas if it were taken up in a big way. A massive expansion of shale gas may yet pave the way to a plausible non-nuclear future, and it certainly warrants close examination. The fundamentals of the difficult decisions ahead, however, have not moved with the Earth.

Thanks Dr Peiser GWPF

On the TV just now (1:30)
Pakistan - CIA contractor accused of murder walked free after the family members of the victim were paid off.
All the reactors at  the disaster site are having severe problems. No1 has exposed fuel rods and 70% are damaged possibly melted, no2's containment vessel has been breached, no 4 has spent fuel rods that are overheating and causing intermittent fires.

Cooler Heads recommended reading:
President Obama’s War on Western Coal Demand
by William Yeatman on March 15, 2011

Japan Nuclear Update
Iain Murray, National Review Online, 15 March 2011

Nuclear Overreactors
William Saletan, Slate, 15 March 2011

New Light on Hide the Decline
Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 15 March 2011

Two States Bail out of Global Warming Lawsuit
Russell Cook, American Thinker, 15 March 2011

Pawlenty’s Flip-Flop on Energy & Environment
Don Shelby, Minnesota Post, 15 March 2011

Risk-Free Energy? Surely, You Must Be Joking
Alex B. Berezow,, 15 March 2011

Engines Beware! Gas with 15% Ethanol Is Coming
Shane McGlaun, Daily Tech, 14 March 2011

Green Injustice
Niger Innis, Washington Examiner, 14 March 2011