February 22nd, 2011

No happy ending to the CO2 con in sight

Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations with Temperature Changes (Scientific Research, Paulo Cesar Soares)
Abstract, References, Full Paper: PDF (Size:1794KB),
Abstract
The dramatic and threatening environmental changes announced for the next decades are the result of models whose main drive factor of climatic changes is the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Although taken as a premise, the hypothesis does not have verifiable consistence. The comparison of temperature changes and CO2 changes in the atmosphere is made for a large diversity of conditions, with the same data used to model climate changes. Correlation of historical series of data is the main approach. CO2 changes are closely related to temperature. Warmer seasons or triennial phases are followed by an atmosphere that is rich in CO2, reflecting the gas solving or exsolving from water, and not photosynthesis activity. Interannual correlations between the variables are good. A weak dominance of temperature changes precedence, relative to CO2 changes, indicate that the main effect is the CO2 increase in the atmosphere due to temperature rising. Decreasing temperature is not followed by CO2 decrease, which indicates a different route for the CO2 capture by the oceans, not by gas reabsorption. Monthly changes have no correspondence as would be expected if the warming was an important absorption-radiation effect of the CO2 increase. The anthropogenic wasting of fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere shows no relation with the temperature changes even in an annual basis. The absence of immediate relation between CO2 and temperature is evidence that rising its mix ratio in the atmosphere will not imply more absorption and time residence of energy over the Earth surface. This is explained because band absorption is nearly all done with historic CO2 values. Unlike CO2, water vapor in the atmosphere is rising in tune with temperature changes, even in a monthly scale. The rising energy absorption of vapor is reducing the outcoming long wave radiation window and amplifying warming regionally and in a different way around the globe.
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This paper shows that there is no causal relationship between CO2 and T as used in models. There is a visible causal relationship between T and CO2 though but the close correlation is on the production side as CO2 uptake is lagged by 9 months to 12.5 years (observed).

For CO2 to have a significant effect there must be a product, e.g. when CO2 increases there would be an acceleration in warming and for decreases, an acceleration in cooling. None is seen in the proxy records. None is seen in the observational data. Did any alarmist science actually look to see whether CO2 was functioning as claimed? Apparently not. Models trump observation always.
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Time and time again I see the same points made that have been made since the onslaught of the destructive-to-civilisation gang green CoR con job began, little new information in the way of observation has been presented. The "insulating" capacity of CO2 is demonstrably insignificant, arid deserts get cold at night, humid rain forests don't. Water vapour stores energy, CO2 doesn't, hence the contrast. Alarmist science waffles on about the reflectance of CO2 in the IR range. It is of such minor import that except for luxuriant growth and healthiness of vegetation, 4 times today's level would be undetectable in the temperature record. We are supposed to believe that increasing crop yields is bad for the grand kids?

One notable addition, a concession, an escape clause if you prefer was added by alarmist NASA that explained the additional vegetation product due to CO2 concentration increasing above plant starvation levels was found to be a cooling factor due to evapo-transpiration (ET) change (
here).
An obvious fault in the study - failure to note a reduction in time the stomata (pores) are open due to CO2 concentration causes a reduction in ET.This leads to the simple deduction that the increasing probability of higher ET due to increasing extent of vegetation is balanced out. A further straw man is set up in the article in that ET is suggested to cause cooling.

CO2 allegedly causes more evaporation (despite the consistent decrease since 1948) so adds to the GHG content of the air, a fanciful warming influence that we are suffering massive deprivation for, yet ET from vegetation cools? It was noted that where vegetation replaces ground with a high albedo, warming is implied due to reduced reflectance. Apples and pears. Bare ground is comparatively non reactive and does not provide shade, shade causes the air affected to cool. Biomass transports ground water to the air when it is hot, a regulatory factor dependent on a third that is external to the atmosphere, ground water availability. Shallow rooted crops (e.g. oil palm, soya) replacing deep rooted natural forest confounds this regulation and the consequences are likely seen as drought in the partially deforested S. Americas and the disruption in Indian Ocean climate cycles, particularly monsoons due to extensive deforestation of S.E. Asia and perhaps eastern coastal India. Western African coastal deforestation has been linked to stronger Atlantic hurricanes, the Atlantic having shown an increasing trend in storminess compared to a decrease seen in the rest of the world.

The short version for policy makers. More trees leads to greater regulation of both internal and external driven climate and extreme events. An obvious demonstration is the devastation caused by typhoon incursion in Indonesia that was amplified by coastal deforestation. N.E. India has suffered similar consequences with the effects affecting Bangladesh despite the success of the Banglas' commendable conservation efforts. Less obvious is the incidence of extreme heat and cold waves in Europe that has a high probability of being at least amplified by deforestation. To demonstrate that even on a small scale trees are important parks in cities, especially those wooded, cool in summer and where evergreens are grown, warm in winter.

I've been following (as time permits) the
Global Warming Skeptics blog:
What is a Watt?
and
Hide the decline
What surface temperature is your model really predicting?
Dereks approach

Discussion or debate?
Slaying a greenhouse dragon - Last post Feb 14
http://judithcurry.com/2011/01/31/slayin...ment-38016

Slaying a greenhouse dragon. Part II - Last post Feb 4
http://judithcurry.com/2011/02/04/slayin...n-part-ii/

Slaying a greenhouse dragon. Part III: discussion - Last post Feb 18
http://judithcurry.com/2011/02/04/slayin...iscussion/

And this kind of news is exactly what the beleaguered agenda driven and drivers, eco nuts, renewable energy and "green" tax bent politicos, sham and fooled scientists and all the other deceivers do  not like to see, counter propaganda. Except there is more truth in this than baked Alaska (or was that frozen toasty) grand kids.

Magnetic polar shifts causing massive global superstorms
Ends with; "So, the start of a new Ice Age is marked by a magnetic pole reversal, increased volcanic activity, larger and more frequent earthquakes, tsunamis, colder winters, superstorms and the halting of the Chandler wobble.
Unfortunately, all of those conditions are being met."

Author T. Aym added these links as a response to comments:
2002 - Scientists may have detected the beginning of the field's next such reversal:
[
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=satellites-spy-changes-to]
2005 - Movement of North Magnetic Pole is accelerating:
[
http://www.physorg.com/news8917.html]
2008 - Earth's Core, Magnetic Field Changing Fast, Study Says
[
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080630-earth-core.html]
2008 - Magnetic Portals Connect Earth to Sun
[
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30oct_ftes/]
2009 - North Magnetic Pole Moving Due to Core Flux
[
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/12/091224-north-pole-magnetic-russia-earth-core.html]
2009 - The earth's climate is significantly affected by the planet's magnetic field:
[
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_earths_magnetic_field_impacts_climate_Danish_study_999.html]
Jan 2011 - British Geological Survey *Possible Pole Shift Occurring* South Atlantic Anomaly is Growing:
[
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/highlights/southAtlantic2010.html]
2009 - A strong, highly-tilted interstellar magnetic field near the Solar System:
[
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7276/full/nature08567.html]
2009 - The solar system is passing through an interstellar cloud that physics says should not exist:
[
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/23dec_voyager/]

Feb-08-2011:
Yellowstone Supervolcano, New Ice Age Could Topple US Government - Terrence Aym Salem-News.com

Now how the hell do you turn an ice age into a scam? (Alternative, CO2 works in mysterious ways...)
:-)

Quakes, China and Libya protests, J & Mo, CCNet

Christchurch earthquake: ‘Dead bodies lying around’ (NZ Herald)

Residents are reporting bodies lying in the streets of Christchurch following this afternoon’s magnitude 6.3 earthquake. Police said fatalities had been reported at several locations and that two buses had been crushed by falling buildings. Christchurch mayor Bob Parker has declared a state of emergency.
(AP’s report: Link)
Seems that the damage was because the epicentre was close and quite shallow, 5km and severe aftershocks followed, 5.6 and 5.5.
(There seem to have been several more and a new quake of 4.5 looking at the data below.)

Latest Earthquakes in the World – Past 7 days (USGS)

  Mag UTC date-time
y/m/d h:m:s
LAT
deg
LON
deg
DEPTH
km
Region
MAP 4.5 2011/02/22 06:43:31 -43.593 172.859 5.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 4.7 2011/02/22 05:28:24 26.651 128.661 35.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/02/22 04:56:22 26.416 128.753 25.6 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
MAP 3.1 2011/02/22 04:33:32 18.953 -66.080 25.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
MAP 4.1 2011/02/22 04:19:05 -43.600 172.750 15.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 4.4 2011/02/22 03:04:09 -43.570 172.650 12.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.1 2011/02/22 02:37:31 -21.154 167.621 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 2.7 2011/02/22 02:33:03 32.473 -115.645 2.7 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
MAP 5.3 2011/02/22 02:10:25 14.150 120.589 137.0 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.5 2011/02/22 01:50:29 -43.588 172.734 9.6 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.6 2011/02/22 00:04:18 -43.580 172.798 6.7 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

Thousands flee as Philippine volcano erupts (AFP)
State volcanologist Ramil Vaquilar told AFP that rumbling sounds accompanied the ash column that rose between two and 2.5 kilometres (1.2-1.6 miles) above the crater.

Iceland volcano and quake blog
Earthquake swarm at Upptyppingar Feb 18
Small earthquake swarm in Krísuvík volcano Feb 20
New earthquake swarm in Hengill volcano (man made) Feb 21

Authorities in China stage swift response to crush mysterious calls for ‘Jasmine Revolution’ (NY Daily News)
Authorities in China Sunday staged a massive, nationwide response to head off potential protests after a mysterious post on an advocacy website and other social media outlets urged citizens to stage a “Jasmine Revolution.”

Bloodbath That Shames Britain: As 300 are Massacred for Defying Gaddafi, America and UN Condemn UK for Cosying Up to Tyrant in Blair’s Dirty Deal (Mail via SOTT)
Britain faces growing condemnation over its courting of Colonel Gaddafi after the Libyan dictator ordered the slaughter of hundreds of his own people.
The United Nations and the U.S. Ambassador to London questioned the UK’s cosy trade links with Tripoli yesterday.
British weapons are believed to have been used to murder more than 300 Libyan pro-democracy demonstrators.
‘I haven’t run away, I’m STILL in Tripoli’ (Mail)

Hypocrisy goes on: Cameron takes arms dealers with him on Egypt visit to promote democracy
The Prime Minister was branded a ‘disgrace’ after it emerged that he has taken eight defence firms with him on a four-day visit to the region.

Jo Nova: Black Propaganda: US Government solicits software to generate fake personas
Part of the US Government has been caught trying to buy software that would allow it to generate 500 fake personas generally known as sockpuppets. They plan to use Facebook, Twitter, and blog comments. This particular leaked email refers to a submission from the Air Force, and apparently for use in Afghanistan and Iraq, but the details reveal that “persona management software” is a spookily mature market sector. Who knows how widespread this is already?

US shutdown looms as budget war rages
(DT)
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner warns that the Republican Party’s deal to slash budget by $61bn will hit the economy’s fragile recovery
If no compromise can be reached, the government will be forced to close – the so-called “nuclear option”. That last happened in 1995 in a budget row between President Bill Clinton and House speaker, Newt Gingrich. With several states also embroiled in battles over cuts, Wall Street is watching the current clashes over the deficit nervously.
(Wall Street has had much to do with causing the problem.)

Four of Mo’s savages slashed teacher’s face and left him with fractured skull ‘for teaching other religions to Muslim girls’ (Mail)
When they have done their time, remove their passports and send them away.
Why aren’t THEIR teachers in the dock?
Deafening silence from the mozzie moderates as usual.
They call it the religion of peace. Really? Then this is lies? More here. Religion has never been about invisible alien with a beard, power and money, is all, nowt else.
(The revelatory http://www.flex.com/~jai/satyamevajayate/ site is gone. If anyone wishes to read it, leave a note in the comments.)

Many more insightful toons – http://www.jesusandmo.net/2011/

CCNet – 21 February 2011

The Climate Policy Network

Climategate Fallout

IPCC No Longer Trusted By U.S. Policy Makers

Climategate Fallout

IPCC No Longer Trusted By U.S. Policy Makers

The Climategate scandal played a role in the passage of the amendment, introduced by Republican Representative Blaine Luetkemeyer, who successfully made the case that the Climategate emails discredit the UN’s claims to scientific integrity:  “emails publicly released from a university in England showed that leading global scientists intentionally manipulated climate data and suppressed legitimate arguments in peer-reviewed journals,” he stated. “Researchers were asked to delete and destroy emails so that a small number of climate alarmists could continue to advance their environmental agenda.” –Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, 20 February 2011

1) U.S. Policy Makers Cut Funding For IPCC – America is to cut off all funding to the United Nations climate science panel (IPCC) under sweeping Republican budget cuts that seek to gut spending on environmental protection. – The Guardian, 21 February 2011

2) House Passes Luetkemeyer Amendment to Halt Taxpayer Financing of UN Climate Panel – The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an entity that is fraught with waste and fraud, and engaged in dubious science, which is the last thing hard-working American taxpayers should be paying for at a time of out-of-control spending and historic debt, which is why I am extremely pleased that my amendment passed. — Blaine Luetkemeyer, House of Representatives, 19 February 2011

3) Roy Spencer: On the House of Representatives Vote to Defund the IPCC – The most vocal climate scientists defending the IPCC have lost their objectivity. Yes, they have what I consider to be a plausible theory. But they actively suppress evidence to the contrary, for instance attempts to study natural explanations for recent warming. That’s one reason why the public was so outraged about the ClimateGate e-mails. ClimateGate doesn’t prove their science is wrong…but it does reveal their bias. Science progresses by investigating alternative explanations for things. Long ago, the IPCC all but abandoned that search. –Global Warming blog, 19 February 2011

4) David Whitehouse: Extreme Events Mean Nothing Without Uncertainties – The Observatory, 21 February 2011

5) Matt Ridley and Indur Goklany: Context Is All – The Rational Optimist, 19 February 2011

Thanks Dr Peiser GWPF