December 4th, 2010

Cancun, The Wake for Kyoto II - UK smart grid madness - CCNet news

Cancun is the last. Climate junkets are doomed I tell you DOOMED.
Without any apology for wasting our time, wasting our money and lying like professional politicians from start to finish.

Via Jo Nova
Reuters – November 25, 2010
Japan says extending Kyoto pact is “meaningless”
“European countries from this year have proposed that it could be okay to extend the commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol if it is joined by major emitters, but we have made clear that this is not acceptable,” Minamikawa told a news conference.
“Even if the issue of extending the Kyoto Protocol becomes a major item on the agenda in Cancun and Japan finds itself isolated, Japan will not agree to this.”

Japan Says ‘No’ to Kyoto Extension, Wants World Treaty
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Japan said it won’t help extend the Kyoto Protocol accord to curb greenhouse-gas emissions after its targets expire in 2012, urging instead work on a new global agreement to combat climate change.
The Kyoto treaty is “outdated” because it only regulates 27 percent of global emissions, Kuni Shimada, special adviser to Japanese Environment Minister Ryu Matsumoto, said yesterday in an interview at United Nations climate talks in Cancun, Mexico.
Failing to extend Kyoto through a UN-brokered agreement may put the world’s second-biggest market for emissions credits at risk of collapse. The organization’s Clean Development Mechanism, worth $2.7 billion last year, is defined in the Kyoto accord, and the credits are generated to help polluters worldwide meet emissions targets laid down in the 1997 treaty.
[...] The collapse of the UN-backed CDM carbon offset market would impact the source of funding for renewable energy projects in developing countries in Asia, Haruhiko Kuroda, president of the Asian Development Bank, said at a briefing today in Tokyo.
“The truth is that the carbon trading market has already been impacted,” Kuroda said. If the CDM collapses, “a very important pillar of the financing mechanism for climate change mitigation efforts in developing countries is going to be disappearing.”

Sob (crocodilian)

If the euro bottoms soon it should be enough to take the carbon credit fraud down. One problem remains. What to do with all those useless windmills?
BBC had better consider doing some fast reinvesting if their pensions aren't to suffer. Dogma or members first? ROTF etc.

Perhaps common sense is becoming infectious. A couple of weeks ago Canada dropped a green con like a hot brick -
Senate takes heat for killing climate change bill
OTTAWA – Opposition MPs say unelected senators interfered with democracy when they killed a proposed climate change law Tuesday night.
They're fired up because senators stopped the bill before it could get to committee hearings, where expert witnesses could give feedback. The Senate hasn't got rid of a private member's bill that fast since 1938.

Via Climate Realists
Inhöfe [Some things in life are more important than helping the shake-down of the world collapse]

(From the transcript posted on his facebook page)
I had hoped to join you in Cancun tonight, but we had votes that I could not miss and given that EPA is busy trying to implement cap-and-trade through the backdoor, I felt it was important to keep watch in Washington. You see, the Obama Administration is trying to achieve administratively what it could not legislatively. Cap-and-trade is now as dead as a doornail, as the American people rejected it at the ballot box on November 2. But that hasn't stopped the Obama EPA. So it's our mission now to stop EPA and its job-killing agenda.

Top Science Panel Caught in Another Global Warming Data Fraud
Slayers of the skydragon revelation christened "Isotope-gate"

This an important milestone, hopefully something similar will be adopted as de rigeur in the UK.
Hockey stick coverup, a sequel
[...] after state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli decided to use the Virginia Fraud Against Taxpayers Act to compel the university to turn over documents related to Mann’s work. The university now admits it had the documents it refused to earlier divulge, but is still resisting handing them over.
To encourage the university and others to obey the law, a state legislator is introducing two bills. The first, available here, would make public employees who violate public information laws subject to fines and firing. The second, soon to be introduced, would thwart future cover-ups by public officials by requiring that all documents created by any public official be categorized at the time of their creation as either subject to public information laws or exempt from them.

Climate debate no place for hotheads
The wails from the gravy train got more demented.

Lubos wrote a thoughtful piece -
Climate: are models better than theory?
Judith Curry wrote an essay about climate models:
Climate model verification and validation
While it's a nice reading and I don't disagree with too many comments too resolutely, I am not in harmony with the overall tone. Let us summarize the crucial issues into several points:
   1. Does "sanctioning" of models by institutions matter?
   2. How many types of experimentally known facts should be verified?
   3. Is a model universally superior over a theory or an explanation or an Ansatz that doesn't require powerful computers?
   4. Do the existing climate models actually teach us something that is both new and true?
To be sure, my answers are "No; as many as possible; no; probably no." Continues

UK starts roll out of £500 million low carbon network project
Four innovative projects that will speed up the crucial development of smart grids to meet low carbon energy use, will share £62 million of funding from the £500 million Low Carbon Networks Fund, energy regulator Ofgem
[ says [reverse date order]:
Smart Grid Problems Revealed: The NERC Study
The Smartest Grid In The Room: California Scheming Goes Awry
Smart Meter Chaos: Maryland PSC Gets Real   .
‘Smart’ Grid: New Critics of a Bad Idea (Part I of II)

Smart Grid Passion–It’s On Your Dime (Part II)
Smart Grid - Where's The Beef?
Smart Grid or Strong Grid? Comment on Ken Maize
Smart Grid: Can 'Smart Metering' Overcome the Hassle Factor? (transaction costs matter too)]

CCNet – 1 December 2010 The Climate Policy Network

New Energy Revolution Shakes U.S. Political Landscape
It’s a prediction that means this may be time to dig out the snow chains and thermal underwear. The Met Office, using data generated by a £33million supercomputer, claims Britain can stop worrying about a big freeze this year because we could be in for a milder winter than in past years. And the new figures, which show a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter, were ridiculed last night by independent forecasters. --Daily Express, 28 October 2010

The Met Office has confirmed the UK's current sub-zero temperatures have triggered a number of November minimum temperature records to fall across the country. Most notably both Wales and Northern Ireland recorded the coldest November night since records began. --Green News, 30 November 2010

U.S. natural gas reserves increased by the most in history last year, and crude reserves also rose, as companies drilled frantically into shale rock formations with new technology, the Energy Information Administration said in an annual report on Tuesday. U.S. net proved natural gas reserves rose 11 percent, or 28.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf), in 2009 to total 284 tcf, underscoring the dramatic impact that new gas pumped from shale rock formations is having on world energy supply. --Selam Gebrekidan and Joshua Schneyer, Reuters, 30 November 2010

It will be difficult for the more expensive forms of renewable energy to compete with cheap, low carbon gas. We should therefore be wary of over enthusiasm for renewables. There is only so much capital available to invest in clean energy and decisions need to be based on pragmatism rather than ideology. It's time to hang up the hair shirt in Cancun. It has failed both the planet and the poor.-- Colin McInnes, The Scottish Herald, 30 November 2010

Rep. Jerry Lewis is hoping to strengthen his bid to chair the House Appropriations Committee by threatening to strip funding from the Obama administration’s controversial environmental rules. The California Republican vying for the gavel of the powerful spending panel sent a letter Monday to the Environmental Protection Agency chief Lisa Jackson warning that the GOP-led House plans to strip funding for agency regulations and conduct “unprecedented levels of oversight,” with a particular focus on the administration’s climate change policies.—Politico, 30 November 2010

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) said he would be willing for the second year in a row to crash the party and parachute in and out of a U.N. climate change summit. The problem this time, he said, is that nobody’s paying attention. “The only problem with that is there’s nobody there,” Inhofe told POLITICO, referring to the talks that began this week in Cancun. –Politico, 30 November 2010

So the media headlines could have just as accurately have read ‘New Met Office data confirms no warming of the oceans in past decade.’ But that would have meant abandoning journalistic acceptance of authority statements, as well as reading beyond four lines in a brochure. –David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 30 November 2010

1) New Energy Revolution Takes Shape In U.S. - Reuters, 30 November 2010
2) U.S. Republicans Threaten To Kill Obama’s Climate Agenda By Cutting Off Its Funding -Hot Air, 30 November 2010
3) Colin McInnes: We need new energy to power the future - The Scottish Herald, 30 November 2010
4) Green Energy Investments Hit The Wall As Subsidies Dry Up - CTV News, 30 November 2010
5) Britain’s Green Tax Plans Threaten Economic Recovery - Daily Express, 1 December 2010
6) The Shame Of Green Britain: One Third Of Welsh and Scots Living In Fuel Poverty -Energy Efficiency News, 30 November 2010
7) Bob Carter: 'Learn To Live With Climate Change' - Daily Express, 1 December 2010
8) David Whitehouse: Warming Underestimated - Does It Matter? - The GWPF Observatory, 30 November 2010

(Thanks Dr Peiser GWPF)

In my mailbox, a sig -
"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." Cicero  - 55 BC

********* Sig*********
"Last refuge of a scoundrel" became schitzoid. It is now the UN and the EC.
1 : a psychotic disorder characterized by loss of contact with the environment, by noticeable deterioration in the level of functioning in everyday life, and by disintegration of personality expressed as disorder of feeling, thought (as in hallucinations and delusions), and conduct called also dementia praecox
2 : contradictory or antagonistic qualities or attitudes

Ozone and Rapid Climate Variation

My take
Planets' positions influence the cyclicity of solar surface activity by gravitational tidal influence (less probably by EMF influence), (a new theory implies solar activity regulates planet alignment) and the Earth's tectonic and volcanic activity by amplification of lunar tidal influence on the surface and plastic mantle. The influence goes deeper affecting the core rotation speed, axis location and orientation, evidenced by wobbles such as nutations in synch with lunar orbital variation and ice ages due to precession that correlate with major planet alignment. Lunar influence is also affected by solar gyre and calculating the influence of the continually varying push and pull exerted on this planet is stupifyingly complex. Even more complex is the calculation of the climate product of such influence.

Here I’m looking at one small aspect that has a major, probably dominant role in rapid climate variation and longer term climate temperature.

First to note is that variation in solar activity correlates with variation in strength of the solar magnetic field (see wiki). The field presents a barrier to cosmic particles (GCRs) formed of very high energy protons, electrons and ionized lightweight element nuclei with protons being the main component. The strength and extent of the magnetic field influence regulates the volume of GCRs reaching the Earth’s magnetic field. Extent and strength have declined. The strength of the solar EMF shows some correlation with the strength of the Earth’s EMF and the local field determines the depth of penetration and so volume of GCRs reaching the lower layers and surface. The EMF strength has declined.

High solar activity evidenced by sunspot abundance produces higher levels of solar UV and proton emissions. Proton levels vary the population of N ions that precipitate down. Proton enhanced N ion precipitation enhances ozone breakdown, so increasing the influence of UV penetration into the ozone layer and to the surface. The consequences of high proton incursion are more rapid production and destruction of ozone by UV, (N ions tipping the scale to depletion) so a greater amount of time is spent in the unreactive-to-UV phase and that allows higher levels of UV to reach the surface. Reducing ozone density obviously increases UV penetration to the surface.

A stratosphere penetrating eruption causes rapid stratosphere cooling that is sustained for decades and subsequent penetrating eruptions compound cooling. Ozone forms more slowly with cooling, seasonal stratospheric polar ice clouds become more plentiful as crystal formation increases due to aerosol abundance enabling droplet formation. Crystals also form a base for the production of ozone depleting compounds that amplify the seasonal depletion. Amongst eruption ejecta are WV, sulphates and HCLs (a chlorine source) and when such eruptions occur in short order they amplify cooling to the point that WV, a source of H ions that compound the break down of O3, becomes scarce due to rapid crystal formation. Crystals precipitate out of the stratosphere more readily than the WV phase, reducing the H2O volume. As WV, H2O is a warming agent by absorption of IR, as crystals a cooling agent due to albedo each moving the temperature in an opposite direction when volume is sufficient.

Crystals are important because their mass is far greater than WV and so more readily precipitate out of the stratosphere and because their influence on temperature is the opposite sign of WV.

The loss of WV to crystals initially amplifies moderate cooling caused by ozone depletion, aerosol dimming and sulphate albedo that are products of eruptions that change the stratosphere's chemistry. Crystal formation removes the dimming effect of aerosols, precipitation removes their cooling influence and a source of H ions by breakdown of H2O. The increased depth of UV penetration amplifying ozone formation produces a slow recovery, exceeding the ongoing N ion precipitation depletion source.

Consequences of ozone depletion include shallow rapid warming of the oceans by UV only slightly influenced by cloud that is mostly transparent to UV, amplification of ozone formation from human emissions and via higher isoprenes production by biomass (mainly trees, ferns and lichen), presumably the latter is a defence response.

Human intervention over centuries by deforestation has greatly depleted what was a strong moderator of climate directly by WV regulation and indirectly by isoprenes production, air quality controls have depleted a strong human cooling influence on the climate as cloud forming aerosols and sulphates that have a high albedo. (Now we are reducing the compensation paid to nature in the form of CO2 that speeds sapling growth and causes mature trees to add bulk as well as greening the planet at the rate of  1% every ~3 years.)

Ozone is recovering. This is very likely due to the drying of the upper tropo- and stratosphere coincident with the absence of recent eruption penetration.

Still to be explored; the influence of radio waves on the ionosphere, their influence and that of the declining EMF on the lower atm. layers, the influence of ozone volume, stratospheric H2O and temperature on air currents, especially the cells - Hadley, Ferrel and Polar, trade winds, ENSO, global SST and on very long term lower tropospheric climate.

Images source (Medical Journal of Aus.)  Click pics for a larger view

Please note that this is a work in progress, as knowledge of new factors becomes available to me I will modify accordingly.

Additional reading (beware of the funding biased!):
Carbon dioxide negativity 

Climate Sensitivity of Ozone
Sensitivity of Ozone Formation To Photons
A scaling analysis of ozone photochemistry

Correlation between Cosmic Rays and Ozone Depletion
High Energy Gamma-ray Emission, Energetic Electrons and Solar Proton Events
Ionosphere-atmosphere interaction during solar proton events

Ozone and UVR trends from 1998 to 2005 at Diekirch (L)
Penetration of solar UVB radiation in shallow tropical waters 
Publications related to NSF UV Monitoring Network

Organic Air Pollutants
Concentration variation of isoprene and its implications for peak ozone concentration
Effect of forest canopy on the tropospheric ozone concentration of Indian States
Formation of Secondary Organic Aerosols Through Photooxidation of Isoprene
Effects of growth carbon dioxide concentration on isoprene emissions from plants

Evidence for ice particles in the tropical stratosphere from in-situ measurements

Volcanic eruptions and climate

Sun, Jupiter, Saturn: spin-orbit coupling?
Jupiter's Dance
Lunar Extremes
Solar Retrograde Motion update
Outer Planets in 2009
The Cyclicity of Sunspots
Two planets align with harvest moon

[Beware of agenda driven - evidence light regulation advocates]

Ozone Depletion’s Lessons For Global Warming
Ozone And Carbon Dioxide
Ozone - (Antarctic Ozone Hole, Arctic Ozone Depletion, Arctic / Antarctic Ozone Depletion Comparison, Ozone Depletion Mechanism)
Laughing Gas Knocks Out CO2
N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels
Global oceanic chlorofluorocarbon inventory
Air-sea fluxes of biogenic bromine from the tropical and N. Atlantic Ocean
CFC Destruction of Ozone - Major Cause of Recent Global Warming!

I don't have access to/can't find data that would enable me to visualise the influence of the mass of the planets relative to distance and position in relation to the Earth and relative to solar gyre at the time of this planet's geological events such as major eruptions and major tectonic movement.
My imagined visual representation is of the centre being a black spot, the earth a blue spot and bands of green of varying thickness and hue representing the orbits with the combined gravity pull of planets in each as distance from the centre increases. A second representation would simply put the Earth at the centre.

Conspiracy Fun
Why is Jupiter classified? [2] Why nuke Jupiter when asteroids and comets do it all the time?