November 23rd, 2010

Hot Air and Cold Reality. CCNet news tips,

Warming not due to urban heating says research by Leon Clifford 
"The surface heating is not due to the urban heat island effect. That is the main message of our paper," lead author Steeneveld told Reporting Climate Science.Com. "We have looked at this problem again with a new model with much more physics in it and we find that it is much more complicated and there are many feedbacks but the temperature increase is not affected by the windspeed".
Arctic stations near heat sources show warming over the last century. Arctic stations that are isolated from manmade heat sources show no warming.
Summary Both raw and adjusted data from the NCDC has been examined for a selected Contiguous U. S. set of rural and urban stations, 48 each or one per State. The raw data provides 0.13 and 0.79 oC/century temperature increase for the rural and urban environments. The adjusted data provides 0.64 and 0.77 oC/century respectively.
Taken together, our findings show that trends in gridded climate data are, in part, driven by the varying socioeconomic characteristics of the regions of origin, implying a residual contamination remains even after adjustment algorithms have been applied. If the surface measuring stations are randomly distributed and respond to this population increase, it would equal 2.2 log (6) or 1.7 C, a number already greater than the observed warming of 0.6 C. If however we note that UHIs occur only on land or 29% of the Earth’s surface, than the net global warming would be 0.29*1.7 or 0.49 C which is close the observed warming. It is not out of the realm of possibility that most of the twentieth century warming was urban heat islands.
That is to say, leading meteorological institutions in the USA and around the world have so systematically tampered with instrumental temperature data that it cannot be safely said that there has been any significant net “global warming” in the 20th century.

Surreality: CARB contemplating a “skeptical science” regulation with penalties
Twin Terminators: Gov. Arnold Schwarnzeneggar and CARB's Mary Nichols. Gee, thanks Arnold
My View: The California Air resources Board is quickly becoming the most dangerous bureaucratic  organization in
California. This latest contempt for a public that questions the validity of their mission is way over the top. As the
headline says, CARB is actively considering:
    …a proposed regulation which would prohibit dishonest statements or submittals offered to the Board or to its staff.
Guess who gets to determine the “dishonesty” of a “statement or submittal” to CARB?

Sherwood Boehlert: Science the GOP can't wish away
My comment. The RS membership got their corrupt board to moderate their position statement on AGW to uncertain. Does the NAS membership consist of wussies?
and at:
The late Professor Frederick Seitz former president of the US Academy of Sciences - Only 32 international science academies out of 192 UN member states show any concern at all! He mentions a figure of 97 percent of the worlds scientists.

Al Gore cries crocodile tears over ethanol (GreenHell)
Al Gore admitted today that corn ethanol was “not a good policy,” according to Reuters — but that’s not the end of the story.
Though he campaigned for ethanol in the past, Gore said,
“It is not a good policy to have these massive subsidies for (U.S.) first generation ethanol… First generation ethanol I think was a mistake. The energy conversion ratios are at best very small… It’s hard once such a programme is put in place to deal with the lobbies that keep it going… One of the reasons I made that mistake blah blah blather.
[...] Gore then went on to support so-called second generation technologies which do not compete with food, for example cellulosic technologies which use chemicals or enzymes to extract sugar from fiber in wood, waste or grass. He said,
“I do think second and third generation that don’t compete with food prices will play an increasing role, certainly with aviation fuels.”
The Reuters reporters didn’t ask Al Gore about his cellulosic ethanol business interests and, of course, Honest Al Gore didn’t volunteer those revealing tidbits either.

CO2 Not The Cause of Climate Change – Cold Period Is Anticipated
The European Institute For Climate and Energy (EIKE) released a paper today written by German physicist Dr. Horst Borchert. The paper reveals a clear relation between solar activity and ocean cycles, and thus act as the main climate drivers. Measured data shows no CO2 impact on climate.
Paper as pdf here. The paper is German but Google translate makes it mostly understandable. It is a good idea to have the orig. pdf open as GT buggers up the pics.
I prefer the product of GCR reactions (plus solar emissions) influencing ozone density as the main cause of cloud extent variation rather than GCRs' smaller influence on formation of cloud forming particles. Whatever, the correlation exists.

Record cold expected
. (WUWT)
The Al Gore effect as well as the testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday has caused a massive chunk of Arctic air to descend from Western Canada into the United States.  How do temperatures 6o-70F degrees below average sound to folks along the Canadian border?  During the next 10-days (or more!), a hemispheric realignment of the large-scale atmospheric circulation will cause a significant decrease in temperatures over North America and Europe.  If this regime reinforces itself during the next few weeks, and a negative Arctic Oscillation phase strengthens, the brutally cold temperatures will provide a dramatic reminder that winter is cold regardless of “global warming”.  I anticipate plenty of fossil fuel use coming up.

Global Cooling is Here
Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades
- by Prof. Don J. Easterbrook - 2008-11-02
Despite no global warming in 10 years, the IPCC still predict the Earth is in store for catastrophic warming.

Anomalous Global Redistribution of the Earth Radiation Budget Components (ISPRS) PDF
V. A. Golovko, T. V. Kondranin
"It was detected that during the past two decades global outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) increased (considerably energy, emitted from the tropics and certain region of the northern hemisphere). The reflected solar radiation decreased by a smaller amount."
CO2 does not decrease total OLR 20 dg N - 20 deg S, Ditto 90 dg N - 90 deg S and as the 2010 La Nina bites...

30 day average to 24 Nov Snow shows in grey. Source

Global Warming and Phanerozoic Climate Changes, Deja vu? PDF (I'll make it to html as I get time)
Comment by Stephen Wilde @ Climate Realists
"There is great deal in this article that mirrors the contents of my articles here over the past 3 years or so. The slideshow type presentation reinforces the points very effectively.
The only point that I would disagree with is the cosmic ray theory concerning cloud quantity variations.
My current judgement is that in due course it will be found that the cause of changing cloud quantities is not the variations in cosmic ray flux but rather the effect of latitudinally shifting jetstreams.
When the jets move equatorward as they do when the sun is quieter the length of the interface between air masses increases greatly because of the wider circumference of the Earth as one moves away from the poles. That gives much more opportunity for air mass mixing and so more clouds.
Additionally a cloud will reflect more sunlight back to space if it moves to a region of stronger sunlight nearer the equator.

Global Warming Hoax Weekly Round-Up, Nov 18th 2010
A warmist at Mother Jones gives up and admits global warming science doesn’t make sense:
"I can’t do this anymore, this climate change hysteria. And I consider myself both progressive and a liberal too, so hear me out. I found out what “they” all agree on, they agree that the effects of CO2 are predicted to be anywhere from unstoppable warming, to no noticeable effects at all. No wonder they all agreed. And it’s been 24 years. We look like we WANT this climate hell to happen. We have been had folks. This is OUR Iraq War of lies and fear. I’m both embarrassed and ashamed for endorsing this CO2 mistake through two and a half decades of dire warnings of doom and Armageddon.. But I was too much of a climate coward to actually say out loud: THE END IS NEAR. Because it’s exactly the same thing! I actually gave my kids CO2 death threats. Why? Why did I do this for so long? Let history know that this responsible environmentalist is now a Green Climate Change Denier."

Marc Sheppard: Climategate: One Year and Sixty House Seats Later
(Orig. @ American Thinker )
It’s been one year to the day since hero or heroes still unnamed and unrewarded bestowed upon the world a virtual dossier, the contents of which should have ended the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) debate abruptly and evermore. Remarkably, it didn’t. Despite the revelations exposed in the now public climate huckster’s handbook, one year later the specter of governance and wealth redistribution both national and international based largely, if not solely, on pseudo-scientific hocus-pocus persists. (Comments

Delingpole on Climategate, formerly in the Express.
In bare detail, Climategate sounds quite dull: the leak, on to the internet, of a large number of emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia.
But the contents of those emails were dynamite. What they showed was that the scientists at the very heart of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) –supposedly the world’s “gold standard” of climate change science – were mired in such incompetence, skulduggery and deceit that you couldn’t trust a word they said.
Orig. pic here CRU Orders Removal of Climate Realist Article From The Express
and a comment on EUReferendum-  Gone missing

(Contact me on twitter (capofcloth) or facebook (clothcap) for a copy of the Express page if it disappears.)

Climategate One Year on - the Curious Missing Police Report
John O'Sullivan
One year on and still British police do not report on their Climategate investigations. But with private police investigating the crime are we right to suspect a government cover up?
Skeptics refuse to let Climategate go away quietly. As we shall see below - even 12 months on – legal analysts show how climate criminals can still be put behind bars. If only UK police applied a more powerful legal instrument: the Fraud Act (2006) discredited government scientists could be prosecuted today.
Those of us with a modicum of legal training have been saying it all along; with the expertise of the Serious Fraud Office instead of those dawdling backwoods country bobbies, Professor Phil Jones and other accomplices linked with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, England could all be put behind bars serving a ten-year stretch.
(Climate Realists)

My comment to the Guardian's article
"UK's last chance for carbon-capture plant gets under way"
CCS is unnecessary and wholly counterproductive because;
1. Human CO2 emissions fell 1.3% (US 6.9%, UK 8.6%)
Natural emissions increased.
Proof that that reducing the atm. CO2 pressure from human sources allows natural CO2 emissions to increase. Nature determines the CO2 level, not politicians nor activists.
2. Additions to CO2 cannot increase warming because CO2's IR range is saturated, (NASA cannot detect any CO2 IR emissions to space) more CO2 cannot absorb more IR and in any case the full spectrum of IR emissions has increased while albedo emissions reduced by a smaller amount of energy.
3. China's emissions will surpass today's global tally by 2030, then there are India's emissions and Africa will soon be playing catch-up.
4. Improving efficiency of coal burning means energy from coal emits CO2 at levels similar to energy from gas. (up to 50% less than standard coal plants)
..."In the United States, the most efficient plants achieve around 40 percent efficiency"
Thus surpassing EC targets without "green" energy or CCS.
The rush by companies to take advantage of the UN's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) subsidies follows the successful application for credits by the Indian Adani coal group for two large power stations at Mundra in Gujarat, India. Adani will earn around £25m a year for the lifetime of its power stations in return for using "super-critical" technology, which burns the coal at lower temperatures and emits up to 30% less carbon dioxide than conventional power plants...
Others companies are now examining if they qualify. Eskom, the giant South African coal mining company controversially loaned £3.75bn by the World Bank in April to build what one of the largest coal-fired power stations in the world, has said it will apply for emission reduction credits. If built, the Medupi plant will emit nearly 25m tonnes of CO2 a year, more than the national output of 115 individual countries.
And if the carbon offset fraud continues -
12 companies are set to fund 20 "efficient" coal-fired power plants overseas in exchange for the right to continue producing their own emissions at home.
"... if Medupi is allowed to sell offsets, the Guardian continues, "It would be able offset all the emissions from a major new coal power station in the UK, effectively allowing the British government to meet its carbon-reduction targets by subsidising a plant in South Africa that would have been built anyway."
So is Huhne participating in yet another counterproductive boondoggle e.g. up to 30% increase in fos fuel necessary for CCS plus build and infrastructure cost with commensurate energy bill hike or is he bonkers? Or is he participating in the destruction of the UK economy by debt,
(7.9 billion, see TPA )
forcing acceptance of the euro or another global currency? Or is it that he knows the world's fiat currency scam is going belly up
( )
and he is spending fast before the opportunity passes?
He has form, boondoggles continued to date;
Wind energy, delivers 8% of capacity in usable energy (produces max 26%)
Does not reduce emissions or fos fuel use, increases them from around 3% infestation, their energy is 2 to 4 times the cost of standard sources without counting hidden extras like the cost of necessary 90% reserve provided by "hot" coal plants, infrastructure upgrade at ~£22bn, spy meters and thousands of birds and bats liquidised, apart from social and health costs and a possible warming influence on local climate.
Denmark has closed 0 plants and pays a high price for WE it stores in other countries and buys back at premium prices. Huhnes plan for the UK
The godawful curlies that contain mercury that will eventually contaminate water tables.
Toxic biofuels that cause starvation, up to 400 times petrol's CO2 emissions and 70% more pollution as ozone and NOx, use 25% more water than Diesel production, forest destruction and on and on.
IOUs as carbon credits that are drawn against the public, issued without permission are a fiat currency and permits to emit.
Solar panels that work a little, when the Sun shines. Very expensive energy source and harmful to nature when used to cover land.
Energy poverty, lower living standards, higher cost of living, higher cost of travel, less freedom etc. for no (public, nature or climate) good reason

CCNet - Policy relevant news
19 Nov
Stern Threatens U.S. With Trade Boycott

More than five million British households will struggle to stay warm this winter and the number of people likely to die in freezing temperatures is set to rise sharply, a leading charity warned yesterday.
-- Sarah O'Grady, Daily Express, 19 November 2010
The United States will be banned from selling goods to many countries if it continues to shirk its promise to cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to the world’s leading climate change economist. Asked what type of US products could face restrictions, Lord Stern said: “Aircraft, clearly, some cars, machine tools” Lord Stern said that a complete ban on some goods was also possible. He said the American people should overcome their historical antipathy to taxation and accept that emissions needed to be controlled either through a tax or a trading scheme.
-- Ben Webster, The Times 19 November 2010
The hard core of a programme is rendered unfalsifiable by the methodological decision of its protagonists.
-- Imre Lakatos Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge 1974
The scientist is restricted by his instruments, money, the attitudes of his colleagues, his playmates, and by innumerable physiological, sociological, historical constraints.
--Paul Feyerabend, Against Method 1975
This proof upset Pythagoras and he asked Hippasus to retract it. But Hippasus refused, so Pythagoras had him drowned. That's what scientists are like in their natural state. Now - call me soft - but I think Pythagoras went too far; I think that scientists should desist from killing each other or even from telling outright falsehoods.
--Terence Kealey, October 2010

1) Climate Wars: Nick Stern Threatens U.S. With Trade Boycott
The Times, 19 November 2010

2) Britain's Green Energy Policy Is Killing The Old And Vulnerable
Daily Express, 19 November 2010
3) Terence Kealey: What Does Climategate Say About Science?
The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 19 November 2010
4) Malte Lehming: The German Ecological-Industrial Complex
The Wall Street Journal, 4 November 2010
5) Larry Bell: Green Energy As A Threat To Energy Security
Forbes, 19 November 2010

22 Nov Green Energy In Crisis: New Fossil Fuel Age Looms
In the last few years, we've discovered the equivalent of two Saudi Arabias of oil in the form of natural gas in the United States. Not one, but two.
Aubrey McClendon, CBS, 14 November 2010
Just as it seemed that the world was running on fumes, giant oil fields were discovered off the coasts of Brazil and Africa, and Canadian oil sands projects expanded so fast, they now provide North America with more oil than Saudi Arabia. In addition, the United States has increased domestic oil production for the first time in a generation. Meanwhile, another wave of natural gas drilling has taken off in shale rock fields across the United States, and more shale gas drilling is just beginning in Europe and Asia. Energy experts now predict decades of residential and commercial power at reasonable prices. Simply put, the world of energy has once again been turned upside down.
The New York Times, 17 November 2010
The word "revolution" is overused, but it's truly appropriate when applied to these technological breakthroughs. Literally trillions of dollars' worth of shale oil and gas can now be economically extracted. The implications are staggering. Oil production, too, in the U.S. will increase far beyond what experts thought possible a few short years ago. The Earth is awash in energy.
Steve Forbes, November 2010
Oil and gas will continue to be pillars for global energy supply for decades to come. The competitiveness of oil and gas and the scale at which they are produced mean that there are no readily available substitutes in either one year or 20 years.
James Burkhard, The New York Times, 17 November 2010
“When wind guys talk to each other,” said Michael Skelly, president of Clean Line Energy Partners, a developer of transmission lines for renewable energy, “they say, ‘Damn, what are we going to do about the price of natural gas?’” Without a government policy fixing a price on carbon emissions through a tax or cap and trade, the hydrocarbon bridge could go on and on without end.
The New York Times, 17 November 2010
In order to avoid higher electricity prices, Prague is slowing the solar power boom and is slapping a new tax on it. It will be the death knell for smaller operators - up to 1450 companies are seriously effected by the new tax. In the neighbouring country of Slovakia, an amendment to the Energy Law was adopted in May which has severely curtailed the potential for solar energy investment.
Christoph Thanei, Die Presse, 17 November 2010
The Spanish government has launched a new regulatory framework that will result in subsidized tariffs for ground-mounted solar energy projects drop 45% this year, killing future investment in the trade, which industry leaders expect will be frozen in the next few years. In addition, approximately 75,000 jobs have been lost with countless firms moving abroad to find new growth opportunities.
Renewable Energy World, 15 November 2010

1) There Will Be Fossil Fuels in Abundance – For Decades To Come
The New York Times, 17 November 2010
2) Editorial: The World Is Awash In Energy
The Washington Examiner, 21 November 2010
3) Eastern Europe Puts Emergency Breaks On Solar Energy
Die Presse, 17 November 2010
4) Spain's Solar Power Sector Falls into the Abyss
Renewable Energy World, 15 November 2010
5) "In the last few years, we've discovered the equivalent of two Saudi Arabias of oil in the form of natural gas in the United States”
CBS News, 14 November 2010
6) Awash In Energy, China May Double Unconventional Gas Output in Five Years
Bloomberg, 19 November 2010
7) Happy Birthday, GWPF!
The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 23 November 2009

CCNet newsletter edited by Dr Peiser GWPF
(CCNet archives to 2006 incl. here)

Thanks JS, Climate Realists, and those linked in the text.