Science and Post Normal Science Fantasy
Hurricane Prediction Hokum
Things have settled down a bit since the climate research scandals of early 2010, and some of the crew at the Met Office Hadley Centre have put forth a new paper. In it they claim the ability to “skillfully” predict hurricane activity for several years in advance. This seems a useful and more reasonable thing for this bunch to be doing, as opposed to scaremongering about anthropogenic global warming, but there is a catch. As it turns out, the whole exercise is aimed at blaming a purported increase in hurricane activity on global warming—the climate change scam lives on.
In a paper entitled “Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency,” pre-published online by Nature Geoscience, Doug M. Smith and several colleagues from the Hadley Centre have made the bold claim that they can successfully predict hurricane activity with “lead times of several years.” Their method utilizes nine variants of a general circulation model, the third Hadley Centre coupled global climate model (HadCM3).
[...] The first thing to note is that they are using climate models to provide samples of uncertainties to “correct” their decadal models predictions. Second, they have restricted the part of the globe being modeled to the Atlantic basin between 0° and 25° N in order to exclude any bothersome storms originating outside that zone. And third, the whole purpose of this exercise is to be able to separate “natural internal variability” from “external influences.” External influences translates to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. CO 2) and aerosols.
They do mention “volcanic and solar activity,” but these are ignored because they are unpredictable and only mentioned once more at the end of the paper. The conclusion that they are reaching for is that natural variability cannot account for all of the increase in storm activity in recent years. This unaccounted for change can then be blamed on global warming. But before they can make such a claim they must prove that their prediction method is “skillful.” To do this they ran their model against historical data, hindcasting in the trade vernacular.
[...] [Doug L Hoffman] When will the climate science set learn, you cannot perform experiments on computer code and proclaim it scientific evidence of anything. You might glean some insight but, in this case, they are working with models that already contain their own biases. What is surprising here is that the case the modeling results make in support of AGW influencing hurricanes is so weak. /more
No Cause for Alarm Over Sea Level or Ice Sheets (Professor Cliff Ollier)
John Le Mesurier’s recent article in On Line Opinion, ”The Creeping Menace” , re-hashes the alarmism about rising sea levels. Much has happened, however, since Al Gore scared the world with visions of metre high seas flooding New York.
New Insight Into Cloud-Aerosol Interactions Within The Climate System
Oscillating Clouds by Linda Joy (From the NOAA ESRL Fall Newsletter)
This article presents yet another example of the diversity of human and natural climate forcings and feedbacks.
(Modellers use personal assumptions for cloud, precipitation, aerosol and ocean oscillation influence because they don't have a clue as to their effect. Then the IPCC calls their products "predictions". The article is yet another example along with new species of soil bacteria evolving to take advantage of increasing CO2, Arctic response to soot and dark particles, ocean and air currents, ozone and solar changes that modellers can't model. Then there are volcanoes... I.e. models are not predictive. But try telling that to a politician. The European Commission in partnership with UNEP and the IPCC and rent-seeking scientific orgs have steered governments the way a magician misleads - by sleight of hand.)
Tropical forest diversity increased during ancient global warming event
The steamiest places on the planet are getting warmer. Conservative estimates suggest that tropical areas can expect temperature increases of 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Does global warming spell doom for rainforests? Maybe not. Carlos Jaramillo, staff scientist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, and colleagues report in the journal Science that nearly 60 million years ago rainforests prospered at temperatures that were 3-5 degrees higher and at atmospheric carbon dioxide levels 2.5 times today's levels.
"We're going to have a novel climate scenario," said Joe Wright, staff scientist at STRI, in a 2009 Smithsonian symposium on Threats to Tropical Forests. "It will be very hot and wet, and we don't know how these species are going to react." By looking back in time, Jaramillo and collaborators identified one example of a hot, wet climate: rainforests were doing very well. (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute)
Junk Science comment: While it is nice to see them admit that warm & wet is actually quite life-friendly, we are not "expecting" such conditions. Crappy climate models programmed to estimate warming in response to additional atmospheric carbon dioxide are still simply reflecting the fantasies of their programmers. A doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide might lead to a net mean warming of the globe by about 1 °C, almost none of which will occur in the tropics. What can be anticipated is that tropical and temperate zones will expand and the super-cold frigid zones will contract toward the poles but the tropical atmosphere is already infrared opaque and you just can't close a closed window. The tropics are not expected to warm from the influence of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.Also the following noted by Lubos:
Effects of Rapid Global Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary on Neotropical Vegetation (abstract)
Environmentalists exaggerated threat to tropical rainforests from global warming (Daily Mail)
Global warming replenishes rainforest (Medical Daily)
Images from alarmistx2 wiki
The temperatures have been mostly cooling since PETM and now they are about 4 °C cooler than during PETM
While the paper speaks a very clear language whether the warming by 3-6 °C was a good thing for life - it surely was - the crooks in the media are trying to obscure this basic finding of the paper. Some of them write "we are afraid to say that it was like that because some people may start to say that several degrees of warming would be a good thing".
The PETM CO2 concentrations were higher than today (390 ppm), and according to some measurements, as high as 2,000 ppm.
$10K Climate Challenge and Debunking John Cook; Skeptical Science (The Climate Guy)
Peter Laux, Locomotive Engineman from Australia, “will pay $10,000 (AUS) for a conclusive argument based on empirical facts that increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel burning drives global climate warming.”
See Peter Laux’s signed and authorized Statutory Declaration (affidavit) to this effect HERE.
A commenter Adam said…
I suspect that some warmists will try and use John Cook’s unskeptical website to try and do this challenge. Jo Nova has done a good rebuttal to Cook’s ‘empirical evidence’ here and Lubos has debunked the whole site here. Anyway, good luck Mr Laux. I doubt anyone warmist will be able to meet your challenge.
(Icecap Nov 11, 2010)
The Greens' Agenda Kevin Andrews:
Their objective is clear: “to transform politics and bring about Green government"
This objective involves a radical transformation of the culture that underpins western civilization
Part 1 Western culture and the Greens
Part 2 Ideology
Part 3 Economic Policies
Part 4 Social and other policies (Quadrant)
The Shocking Truth: The Scientific American Poll on Climate Change by Patrick J. Michaels
November’s Scientific American features a profile of Georgia Tech atmospheric scientist Judith Curry, who has committed the mortal sin of reaching out to other scientists who hypothesize that global warming isn’t the disaster it’s been cracked up to be. I have personal experience with this, as she invited me to give a research seminar in Tech’s prestigious School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences in 2008. My lecture summarizing the reasons for doubting the apocalyptic synthesis of climate change was well-received by an overflow crowd.
Written by Michael Lemonick, who hails from the shrill blog Climate Central, the article isn’t devoid of the usual swipes, calling her a “heretic,, which is hardly at all true. She’s simply another hardworking scientist who lets the data take her wherever it must, even if that leads her to question some of our more alarmist colleagues.
But, as a make-up call for calling attention to Curry, Scientific American has run a poll of its readers on climate change. Remember that SciAm has been shilling for the climate apocalypse for years, publishing a particularly vicious series of attacks on Denmark’s Bjorn Lomborg’s Skeptical Environmentalist. The magazine also featured NASA’s James Hansen and his outlandish claims on sea-level rise. Hansen has stated, under oath in a deposition, that a twenty foot rise is quite possible within the next 89 years; oddly, he has failed to note that in 1988 he predicted that the West Side Highway in Manhattan would go permanently under water in twenty years.
SciAm probably expected a lot of people would agree with the key statement in their poll that the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is “an effective group of government representatives and other experts.”
Hardly. As of this morning, only 16% of the 6655 respondents agreed. 84%—that is not a typo—described the IPCC as “a corrupt organization, prone to groupthink, with a political agenda.” /continues
Obama Must Fire Climate Czar Carol Browner (By Christine Hall)
The Politico late Tuesday broke a story that the White House “rewrote crucial sections of an Interior Department report to suggest an independent group of scientists and engineers supported a six-month ban on offshore oil drilling,” according to a report by the Interior inspector general.
In response, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a free market, government watchdog group, called for the firing of White House Climate Czar Carol Browner.
Sent: Wednesday, November 10, 2010 9:08 AM
Subject: The “climategate” investigations
Your reference last night to the investigations that “cleared” those involved in the climategate scandal ignores the fact that those investigations were complete “whitewashes” conducted by those same institutions who profited from the research contracts that the climategate scientists brought to their institutions. Those involved in the Parliamentary inquiry into the matter were similarly steeped in conflicts of interest. Those investigations are about as credible as a BP investigation of its explosion and oil spill in the Gulf.
I have studied the theory that human emission of CO2 is causing “global warming/climate change” for years, and the overwhelming evidence proves rather convincingly that the theory is completely false. Although I am a lifelong liberal Democrat, if the Republicans actually hold hearings on the issue, I would feel that it is my public duty to testify at such hearings and summarize the wealth of data available that proves the falsity of that theory.
But if the Republicans actually hold such hearings, they would be making fools of themselves because they would be “beating a dead horse”.
You, on the other hand, are making a bigger fool of yourself, by trying to prop up the dead horse on its four legs so that you can ride it!
Please, both of you, do the public a great favor and arrange for its decent burial.
Dr. Martin Hertzberg
(Icecap Nov 10, 2010)
The climate change scare is dying, but do our MPsnotice?
The collapse of the warmist position on climate change has not impinged on politicians in Britain or Brussels, says Christopher Booker.
Nothing more poignantly reflects the collapse of the great global warming scare than the decision of the Chicago Carbon Exchange, the largest in the world, to stop trading in "carbon" – buying and selling the right of businesses to continue emitting CO2.
A few years back, when the climate scare was still at its height, and it seemed the world might agree the Copenhagen Treaty and the US Congress might pass a "cap and trade" bill, it was claimed that the Chicago Exchange would be at the centre of a global market worth $10 trillion a year, and that "carbon" would be among the most valuable commodities on earth, worth more per ton than most metals. Today, after the collapse of Copenhagen and the cap and trade bill, the carbon price, at five cents a ton, is as low as it can get without being worthless.
Here in Britain, as the first snows fall, heralding what may be our fourth cold winter in a row, it is time we addressed one of the most glaring political "disconnects" in our sadly misgoverned country. /continues
Biofuels (corporate welfare) note:
Ear (Of Corn) Marks
Energy Policy: If we're serious about cutting wasteful spending and reining in government, the abolition of subsidies for ethanol production and the ending of mandates for its use would be a good place to start.
The Bush tax cuts aren't the only thing that expires at the end of the year. Also set to expire is the mother of all corporate welfare: ethanol subsidies to Big Agriculture coupled with tariffs protecting domestic ethanol production that benefit farm-state senators and congressmen but few others.
Ethanol is the perfect tax-spend-and-elect mechanism. Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland, the nation's second-largest ethanol producer, has operations in 119 congressional districts. The first presidential contest is in the corn state of Iowa. We have said that if the road to the White House ran through Idaho, we might be making biofuels from potatoes. (IBD)
How to upset the misanthropic capitalist and democracy haters? Sue the EPA:
The Renewable Fuels Association posted a note today deploring the recent lawsuit by the American Petroleum Institute over the EPA decision to increase the maximum blend wall for ethanol in conventional gasoline by 50% from E10 to E15. /more
Remember, biofuels kill and they emit more real pollution than petrol. Their only saving grace is that they cause far greater CO2 emissions than fossil fuels.
With the population expected to reach 9 bil in the near future doubling CO2 would provide an increase in crop yield sufficient to provide a third of the expected need. Kill the toxic biofuels fiasco and that figure would far exceed 50%.
As if there wasn't already a surfeit of justification to bin Oxburgh/Huhne/EC's carbon capture and storage boondoggle:
Leaking underground CO2 storage could contaminate drinking water
Leaks from carbon dioxide injected deep underground to help fight climate change could bubble up into drinking water aquifers near the surface, driving up levels of contaminants in the water tenfold or more in some places, according to a study by Duke University scientists.
E.ON has seen the writing on the wall:
E.ON pulls out of Kingsnorth carbon storage bid
The energy supplier has scrapped plans to compete for funding to build Britain's first power station fitted with technology to capture and permanently store carbon emissions.
One for Huhne and Cameron, it couldn't happen here - the public going nuclear... Could it?
German people in unprecedented rebellion against government
[...] Trapped in black, icy woods without supplies or reinforcements able to reach them because of blockades by a mobile fleet of farmer's tractors, the exhausted and hungry police officers requested negotiations with the protesters. A water cannon truck was blocked by tractors, and yet the police still had to clear 5000 people lying on the railway track at Harlingen in pitch darkness. The largest ever police operation had descended into chaos and confusion in the autumn woods of Lower Saxony, defeated by the courage and determination of peaceful protesters who marched for miles through woods to find places to lie down on the tracks and to scoop out gravel to delay the progress of the "the train from hell."
Is this why Cameron is rushing to be friends with Israel's government?
What a gas!
Israel’s new gas finds may affect its strategic friendships too
[...] For decades Israel drilled for oil with scant success. But in 1999 a maritime drill struck gas in commercial quantities just 250 metres beneath the Mediterranean, 40km (25 miles) out from Israel’s southern port of Ashdod. Production began in 2004 at what is called the Mari-B, and some 2.8 billion cubic metres of gas are piped ashore each year from reserves that may be as large as 22 bcm.
But that is a mere bubble compared with the Tamar field discovered last year, also in the Mediterranean, 90km off the northern end of Israel’s coast. Tamar, where the gas is much deeper down, holds 238 bcm. Production, by a consortium led by the same Israeli and American partners who own Mari-B, is to begin in 2014. Tamar was the world’s largest gas find in 2009.
But it, too, may be dwarfed by another find by the same consortium, 45km farther out to sea. Noble Energy, the consortium’s American part, says this field, called Leviathan, has a potential of 453 bcm and an even chance of “geological success”. An exploratory drill is under way. The results should be known early next year. If good, production could begin by 2016.
(Looking at the map, isn't that stepping on Cypriot toes?)
Commies to the left of me, fascists to the right, here it comes, fuct in the middle by eu
America's Devolution Into Dictatorship
[...] the ACLU has to go to federal court in order to attempt to affirm that "if the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state."
How soon before a bilderberg EU "president" claims similar authority? The EU is an eco fascist dictatorship after all.
Keep a weather eye on this, it is likely to develop in unexpected directions.
G20 leaders agree to refrain from 'currency devaluation'
G20 leaders on Friday refused to endorse a US push to get China to let its currency rise, keeping alive a dispute that has raised the spectre of a global trade war.
Smart (?) Car
Before and after the accident... click pic 2 to enlarge
(Icecap Nov 12, 2010)
In the comments to this article:
Faith, hope and charities
The public trusts charities more than any other type of organisation. But measuring do-gooding risks shattering some illusions
Charles Budd wrote:
Having worked in charities for over fifteen years, I am sad to say that trust in many of them is unfounded. Yes, they do good. Yes, they save lives. Yes, they raise awareness. But, and it's a very big but indeed, they are jaw-droppingly inefficient. All of the big charities spend well over 90% of their income on running the organisation - not on their beneficiaries.
Many small charities are efficiently run (although not all). I have worked with organisations which, for their size, acheived astounding results on very little money indeed. Most of these small charities rely on dedicated and passionate individuals who do the job out of caring, not as a career.
If you're making a donation to a charity - do your homework: find out how much actually reaches those who need it. Otherwise you're not giving intelligently, you're just giving to make yourself feel better.
£7.9 trillion (they got it wrong @ £4.8 trillion) Brown's Gift to the UK - The Movie:
Britain's Trillion Pound Horror Story - Channel 4 (UK & Ireland only)
Debates & Events
16 November: Legatum Institute, London
17 November - CBI Climate Change Summit 2010
18 November - Engaging the public on climate change
30 November - Professor Robert Carter (James Cook University): An alternative view of climate hazard - a basis for policy?
@The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 1 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y – 16:00–17:45
6 December - Benny Peiser: Economic and Political Risks of Unilateral Decarbonisation.
The Major Energy Users' Council, Westminster Winter Energy Conference, 14:00-14:30 -
@Broadway House, Tothill Street, London SW1
Why The Global Cooling Story Is So Important…In The Anthropo-genic Global Warming Debate
The Climate Change Scare Is Dying, But Do Our MPs Notice?
A Churchillian Warning: Britain's Green Energy Policy Is Completely 'Bonkers'
Pressure Growing To Scrap Renewables Obligation
UK Energy Bosses Want Government To Force Up Electricity Prices To Make Nuclear Competitive
Obama's Climate Policy Faces Termination In New Congress
David Henderson: Deutsche Bank’s Green Politics
Peter Foster: The Copenhagen Emissions Gap
And Finally: A New Consensus
Congratulations go toJames Delingpole on being chosen to receive the Bastiat Award.
On Twitter: Capofcloth
Almost forgot to say thanks. Junk Science, Icecap, GWPF, SOTT, Economist, DT, Mail and others linked in the text