February 21, 2015February 21, 2015Today is the first anniversary of the deal made between Yanukovich and the "opposition" and guaranteed by foreign ministers Radosław Sikorski of Poland, Laurent Fabius of France and Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany. As we all know, the deal resulted in a withdrawal of the security forces from the Kiev city center immediately followed by an armed insurrection which overthrew the government. Predictably, Poland, France and Germany did not object. I won't recount all of the events which happened since this infamous day, but I think that it is important to look at what has changed in a year. I think that it also makes sense to compare what I had predicted might happen with what actually happened simply to see if a person if a person with no access to any classified data and who is using only "open sources" for his analysis could have predicted what happened or if this was all a huge and totally unpredictable surprise.
So let's look at my predictions in a chronological order.
November 30th, 2013: in "The Gates of Hell are Opening for the Ukraine"
So let's summarize the above:
- Yanukovich will be overthrown. Check
- The Donbass will rise up. Check
- The Ukraine will be partitioned. Check
- A civil war will break out. Check
- The US will try to pull Russia in. Check
- Russia will protect Crimea. Check
- Russia will say out of the Donbass. Check
- Russia will have to deal with refugees. Check
- The US/NATO will not intervene like in Bosnia. Check
- The Ukrainian economy will collapse. Check
In conclusion I will just say that if I believe that all the horrors of the past year were fully avoidable, I also believe that the horrors of the next, upcoming, year are not: the Ukraine has plunged over the cliff and is now heading for the very same future as Libya (another western "success story"). I hope that I am wrong and that I am missing something crucial, but I personally do not see any way to stop the implosion of the rump-Ukraine and my advise to anybody still living there would be to get out while you can.
In them meantime in Moscow there was a "anti-Maidan" demonstration planned for 10'000 people. 35'000-50'000 showed up to say "we will not forget, we will not forgive" and "no Maidan in Russia". This anti-Maidan movement which was just formed very recently has a very bright political future because after watching the horrors right across their border and accepting close to a million refugees from the Ukraine, the vast majority of Russians want nothing to do with a Maidan-like event in Russia. Combine that with the still 80%+ popularity of Putin in spite of western sanctions, and you will see that Russia is safe from the kind of events which happened in Kiev a year ago.
The virus which killed the Ukraine will act as a vaccine for Russia.
The Saker vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2015/02/the-ma